On August 18, President Joe Biden is set to host a trilateral summit at Camp David, Maryland, a favorite retreat for past US presidents, with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol.
Historically, the three nations have convened for at least 12 such summits, usually amidst larger conferences. This meeting will be the first dedicated summit of the trio and marks the first time Biden has entertained foreign leaders at Camp David.
Camp David holds a storied place in US diplomatic history. In 1978, then-President Jimmy Carter brokered a three-way summit there with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. This summit led to the signing of the Camp David Accords, a stepping stone to Middle East peace. The following year, a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel was formalized, earning both Sadat and Begin the Nobel Peace Prize.
Biden's choice of location reflects both an effort to strengthen ties with Japan and South Korea and hopes that the summit might serve as a historic turning point in Japan-South Korea relations.
According to insiders from all three nations, the agenda will likely include bolstering cooperation in military affairs, supply chains, and cybersecurity. Key among the aims is the US's hope to institutionalize security cooperation, ensuring that partnerships remain intact even with political shifts. While no official joint statement will name them, US media speculates that these strengthened alliances aim to counterbalance China and North Korea.
However, even before the summit's commencement, South Korean media voiced concerns, suggesting that Yoon Seok-yeol's push towards military cooperation with the US and Japan is a risky gamble. Historical disputes and territorial disagreements have long strained Japan-South Korea relations, and they also compete in major export products. The recent disagreement over Japan's plan to release treated radioactive water into the ocean added fuel to the fire.
Just days before the summit, on August 15th, Yoon Seok-yeol commemorated the anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule, controversially referring to Japan as a partner with shared universal values. This comment was met with significant backlash domestically.
Yoon Seok-yeol's domestic approval rating currently stands at a mere 33%, while Kishida's cabinet in Japan is at 26.6%. With South Korea's legislative elections slated for next April, Yoon Seok-yeol's party, the People Power Party, could lose more seats, complicating the implementation of new policies.
A Mini NATO in Asia-Pacific?
Reports suggest that this Camp David summit is seen as a crucial juncture in US-Japan-South Korea collaboration. Three documents are set to be drafted, including the "Camp David Principles" and the "Camp David Spirit." The former will guide trilateral cooperation, while the latter will outline the partnership on issues ranging from the Korean Peninsula to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The third document remains under negotiation.
Sources claim that for the first time, the three leaders will publicly acknowledge their intertwined national security interests. Although not expected to produce a mutual defense agreement akin to NATO, the nations will commit to communication and consultation during regional security crises.
In pursuit of systematizing their security cooperation, the countries plan annual joint military drills, regular ballistic missile defense exercises, sharing intelligence on North Korean missile threats, establishing emergency hotlines, and reinforcing cybersecurity collaborations, including combating misinformation. The final joint statement might also address tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
While 80,000 US troops are stationed across Japan and South Korea, the two Asian nations have yet to formalize a security alliance. South Korean officials continue to shy away from labeling their budding security ties with Japan as an "alliance." An aide to the South Korean president clarified that an alliance typically means automatic military support in case of external aggression - a commitment that doesn't describe South Korea-Japan relations. He emphasized that they are forming a "triangular security consultation mechanism" rather than a "triangular alliance."
Contradicting some US media reports, South Korea's National Security Advisor denied claims that the nations would mutually offer consultation during regional security crises.
On the economic front, the three nations plan new strategies to enhance supply chains for critical technologies like semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries, also establishing early warning systems for shortages.
Earlier this month, Biden signed an executive order limiting American business investments in China in the realms of semiconductors, microelectronics, quantum information tech, and artificial intelligence. As the US Treasury shapes specific restrictions set to take effect next year, there's speculation that Biden might urge Japan and South Korea to adopt similar measures at the Camp David summit.
However, a South Korean presidential aide dismissed the idea that the summit's primary focus is to contain China. They downplayed the possibility of discussing recent controversial Chinese investment restrictions. The official stated that with the three countries being tech powerhouses, they might discuss preventing third-party tech theft or misappropriation.
During the Camp David Summit, Yoon Seok-yeol plans bilateral meetings with both US and Japanese leaders. A South Korean official shared that the contentious issue of Japan's nuclear wastewater release will be off the table during the bilateral talks.
Lastly, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin commented that the Asia-Pacific region should remain a hub for peaceful development and collaboration, rather than becoming an arena for geopolitical competition. He criticized efforts to form exclusive groups or military blocs in the region, suggesting that such actions won't win public favor and will inevitably raise alarms among regional nations.
South Korea-Japan Dispute Remains Unresolved
Though the Biden administration hopes that through the Camp David Summit, South Korea and Japan can minimize differences and establish a "triangular alliance" with the US to contain China, even Western media like the "Washington Post" have pointed out that due to the complex issues between South Korea and Japan, the warming relationship between the two governments is very fragile.
Reuters highlighted that the first challenge for the relationship between South Korea and Japan is the discharge of nuclear-contaminated water from Fukushima. After the Camp David Summit, Japan might commence the release of the nuclear wastewater. A poll by Gallup in June showed that 78% of South Koreans are concerned that Japan's discharge will pollute the oceans and marine products.
South Korea's opposition parties, including the Common Democratic Party, Justice Party, Basic Income Party, and Progressive Party, submitted a petition to the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday opposing Japan's plan to release the contaminated water. The spokesperson of the largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, Park Seong-jun, noted that the Japanese media "Asahi Shimbun" claimed that the South Korean government and the ruling party informally asked Japan to release the Fukushima contaminated water earlier. If the report is true, it would invite massive criticism.
Regarding the Camp David Summit, the "Korean National Daily" editorial warned that President Yoon Seok-yeol is overlooking history and is dangerously pushing for an informal alliance with Japan without convincing public opinion. Such a move would be hard for Korean society to accept.
The editorial argued that in the long run, Yoon's approach might destabilize South Korea-Japan relations. Even if the collaboration with the US and Japan is to address the North Korean nuclear threat, South Korea can't bear excessive tension and confrontation with China.
To set the tone for the Camp David Summit, Yoon made friendly overtures towards Japan on the National Liberation Day, which commemorates Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule. Notably, his speech did not touch upon the history of Japanese colonization. Instead, he praised Japan for helping South Korea deter North Korea and referred to Japan as a partner that shares universal values and mutual interests with South Korea. This statement attracted fierce criticism from the opposition.
The Justice Party accused Yoon's speech of being an act of aggression against the opposition, civil society, and the labor sector. Even Japanese media reported the discontent within South Korea about Yoon's remarks.
There have been historical disputes between South Korea and Japan. During the tenure of former South Korean President Moon Jae-in from the Common Democratic Party, the relationship between the two countries deteriorated.
Japan's refusal to compensate for forcibly mobilizing Korean laborers during its colonial rule became a focal point of disputes, leading to a trade war. Both countries removed each other from their "white lists" that enjoyed simplified export procedures.
After Yoon Seok-yeol, from the People Power Party, took office, the South Korean government made concessions to Japan in a bid to get closer to the US. The South Korean government established a fund to support victims of Japan's forced labor, compensating Korean laborers and their families instead of Japanese companies doing so. This move was criticized by the Common Democratic Party as a "disgrace in the history of South Korean diplomacy".
This year, Yoon Seok-yeol and Kishida visited each other's countries, and both nations re-included each other in the "white list", indicating a warming relationship.
However, due to his foreign policy, Yoon's approval ratings have been at an all-time low. A survey by Gallup Korea at the end of last month showed Yoon's approval rating at just 33%, up one percentage point from the previous poll. His disapproval rating was a staggering 58%, with only 33% supporting the ruling People Power Party.
Polls suggest that Yoon's foreign policy is a major cause of dissatisfaction among voters, especially his stance on Japan's discharge of nuclear-contaminated water.
South Korea will hold parliamentary elections next April. The Korean National Assembly has a single chamber with 300 seats. Yoon's People Power Party holds 114 seats, not being the majority. The largest party in the National Assembly is Moon Jae-in's Common Democratic Party with 167 seats.
Due to the People Power Party not holding a majority, the government under Yoon has seen less than 40 of its hundreds of proposals approved by the National Assembly. If the People Power Party loses more seats in next year's elections, Yoon's governance will become even more challenging.
Apart from domestic discontent with Yoon, the dispute between South Korea and Japan over Dokdo (known as "Takeshima" in Japan) remains unresolved. Even during times of improving relations between South Korea and Japan, Japan's "Diplomatic Bluebook" released in April still claims that Takeshima, both historically and under international law, is an inherent part of Japan's territory and that South Korea is "illegally occupying" it.
Economically, both South Korea and Japan are export-driven nations, and they compete mainly in machinery, petrochemical products, and precision instruments.
A report released by the Korea Economic Research Institute at the end of last year pointed out that South Korean and Japanese export products are highly similar, with a similarity index reaching 69.2, higher than Korea's similarity with any other trading partner.
The report suggests that due to the high similarity in export products and with the Japanese yen's significant depreciation last year, South Korean exports to Southeast Asia and other key regions were taken over by Japanese products. Researchers estimate that due to the significant depreciation of the yen against the dollar, from January to September of last year, South Korea lost about $16.8 billion in exports.
