After nearly three years of silence, Huawei smartphones have made a powerful comeback, with the pre-sale of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro marking the brand's triumphant return.
Amidst the buzz of "Kirin's Return" and "Leading the Pack," the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, priced at 6,999 yuan, sold out instantly. Some consumers were even willing to pay a premium, with some dealers raising the price by 1,300 yuan and resale prices on secondary platforms exceeding the original by 200-600 yuan.
The combination of Huawei's aggressive marketing, dealer collaboration, consumer enthusiasm, and public discussion created a long-awaited celebration.
All signs point to the Huawei Mate 60 Pro being a massive success, potentially leading Huawei's entire smartphone lineup to quickly reclaim its lost market share and possibly return to the top spot.
In an increasingly saturated smartphone market, Huawei's strong return will inevitably shake up the competition, leading to a major industry reshuffle.
Apart from Apple and Xiaomi, which have captured Huawei's high-end market share over the past three years, Honor, which originated from Huawei, is also expected to feel the impact, especially as it aggressively targets the high-end and foldable screen market.
For years, Honor existed as a sub-brand of Huawei. Even two years after becoming independent, Honor has struggled to establish a clear brand identity, which remains both a challenge and an opportunity.
The King Returns
The energy behind the Huawei Mate 60 Pro's release is astonishing.
Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam told Wall Street Journal that if supply remains steady, the Mate 60 series will outperform previous models, with the Mate 60 Pro alone expected to sell over 7 million units.
Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi is even more optimistic, predicting that 12 months after the release of the Mate 60 Pro, cumulative shipments will reach at least 12 million units.
For comparison, the Mate 50 Pro had cumulative shipments of 2.5 million units 12 months after its release, while the 5G-supported Mate 40 Pro reached approximately 6 million units, highlighting the popularity of the Mate 60 Pro.
Guo Mingchi further believes that, thanks to the demand and market influence of the Mate 60 Pro, Huawei's smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to grow by 65% year-on-year to 38 million units. By 2024, shipments could reach at least 60 million units.
According to Canalys data, Vivo, the top smartphone brand in China in 2022, shipped only 52.2 million units. This suggests that by the end of this year, Huawei could reclaim its position as the top smartphone brand.
Four years ago, Huawei dominated the domestic smartphone market, with a combined strategy of Huawei and Honor brands, holding a significant market share.
In 2019, Huawei's shipments in the Chinese smartphone market reached 140 million units, accounting for 38.5% of the market, far ahead of second-placed OPPO.
By the second quarter of 2020, Huawei's domestic market share peaked. According to Counterpoint data, Huawei held 46% of the market, followed by OPPO with 16%, Vivo with 16%, Xiaomi with 10%, Apple with 8%, and others with 4%.
Even after sanctions in 2020, Huawei's smartphone sales declined by 24% year-on-year to 114 million units but still held a 37% market share, ranking first.
However, in the following two years, due to restrictions in 5G, chips, and production capacity, Huawei's market share plummeted, dropping out of the top five.
In 2023, Huawei's smartphones are poised for a resurgence.
On August 4th, at the 2023 Huawei Developer Conference, Huawei's Terminal BG CEO, Yu Chengdong, announced that Huawei smartphones are on the path to recovery.
Before the release of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, Huawei had gradually resumed its product update rhythm. Last September, Huawei's Mate 50 series continued to sell well, and in the first quarter of this year, Huawei released models like the P60 series and Mate X3.
The Huawei Mate X3 foldable smartphone was highly sought after upon its release. Currently, this phone still commands a premium in the market and is even considered an "investment."
From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, while the national smartphone market remained sluggish, Huawei smartphones achieved year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters.
According to IDC data on the Chinese smartphone market, Huawei's smartphone shipments in the second quarter of this year grew by 76.1% year-on-year, holding a 13% market share, up 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year.
Standing Alone
Huawei's powerful return will inevitably create waves in the smartphone industry.
Among the many smartphone brands affected by Huawei's return, Honor is likely the first to feel the impact.
Four years ago, Honor, positioned as Huawei's mid-to-low-end smartphone, was a formidable brand in the market.
At that time, Honor accounted for about 40% of Huawei's total sales. If calculated separately, Honor's market share in 2020 was around 14.8%, ranking fourth.
However, due to external pressures, Huawei sold Honor in November 2020. From 2021 to 2022, Huawei and Honor took distinctly different paths. Huawei's sales plummeted from first place to beyond fifth, while Honor rose to second place in 2022.
When Honor first became independent, it experienced a quiet period due to chip shortages. In the first quarter of 2021, it didn't even rank in the top five.
However, Honor quickly caught up. According to IDC data, by the fourth quarter of 2021, Honor had climbed to second place in market share, ranking fifth for the entire year. In 2022, Honor successfully secured the second spot, with market shares for the year being Vivo at 18.6%, Honor at 18.1%, OPPO at 16.8%, Apple at 16.8%, and Xiaomi at 13.7%.
It's evident that during Huawei's quiet two years, Honor not only reclaimed its lost territories but also took over a portion of Huawei's market share. Apple and Xiaomi took a more significant share of the high-end market, while OPPO and Vivo's market shares remained relatively stable.
Industry insiders have said that to smartphone enthusiasts, Honor is seen as a "lite version" of Huawei. To the average consumer, Honor is "almost equal" to Huawei, which is a significant reason for Honor's rapid rise.
Honor's CEO, Zhao Ming, has high hopes for the independent Honor. The day before Huawei's farewell party for Honor, he clearly stated at an employee communication meeting in Beijing that Honor's goal is to become the number one smartphone brand in the domestic market.
However, the current smartphone market is saturated. For Honor to further increase its market share, it needs to make breakthroughs in the high-end market, which has been its focus in recent years.
Zhao Ming once boldly stated, "Honor aims to change the dominance of Apple in the high-end market."
On July 12th, Honor released its high-end foldable flagship, the Honor Magic V2, ready to make a significant impact on the high-end market.
But then, Huawei returned, and the high-end market is Huawei's home turf.
In a zero-sum market, Honor, seen as a "substitute," became the smartphone brand with the most significant sales decline in the first half of this year. In the first quarter, shipments fell by 22.8% year-on-year, and in the second quarter, they dropped by 17.9%. Market share fell from 19.5% last year to 16.4%, ranking third after OPPO and Vivo.
Regarding the Huawei Mate 60 Pro's pre-sale success, Honor's CEO, Zhao Ming, recently said, "I'm happy for them. It's great to see such a response from the public and media."
Behind the generous blessings, Honor can't hide its concerns and anxieties. This year, Honor not only needs to maintain or increase its market share but also faces direct competition with Huawei.
More than two years ago, when Honor was spun off, Huawei's leader, Ren Zhengfei, said at the farewell party that Honor should become Huawei's strongest global competitor, surpassing and even defeating Huawei. "In the future, we will be competitors. You can use 'foreign guns' and 'foreign cannons,' and we will use new 'Hanyang-made' weapons. Who wins is still uncertain."
Looking back at the four years when Huawei smartphones were silent, Honor ran to the market alone. However, in terms of brand and spirit, Honor has never been independent; it is often seen as Huawei's shadow.
Huawei's return and hot sales carry a lot of national sentiment, but the fundamental reason is its technology and products that resonate with consumers.
Honor once shared this brand value with Huawei. But now, as both stand on the stage as competitors, everything has changed.
Honor's future challenge is to achieve true independence, grow into a brand that stands alongside Huawei and Apple, and requires a stunning, forward-looking product with a strong technical label. It also requires a transformative change.
