In a bid to salvage plummeting approval ratings and secure re-election in next year's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a major cabinet reshuffle on September 13. This marks Kishida's second significant adjustment to his cabinet since taking office.
Post-reshuffle, only six out of the 19 cabinet members retained their positions, with 13, including the Foreign and Defense Ministers, being replaced. Eleven of these members are first-timers in the cabinet, and the number of female members has reached five, a record high.
Beyond the cabinet, Kishida also made personnel changes within the LDP's senior ranks. However, key members from the three largest factions within the LDP continue to hold significant positions.
The most notable appointments in the new cabinet are Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Toru Kihara, with the latter making his cabinet debut.
Kamikawa, a member of the Kishida-led faction, becomes Japan's first female Foreign Minister in nearly two decades. Despite lacking diplomatic experience, Kamikawa, a Harvard graduate, has received U.S. endorsement, having previously worked under former U.S. Ambassador to China, Max Baucus. Kihara, on the other hand, is known for his pro-Taiwan stance and has made multiple visits to Taiwan.
Balancing Factional Interests
A defining characteristic of Kishida's new cabinet is the balance of interests among the major LDP factions. The LDP consists of seven major factions: Abe, Aso, Motegi (formerly Takeshita), Kishida, Nikai, Ishiba, and Ishihara.
Of the 19 members in the new cabinet, four hail from the largest faction led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and another four from the second-largest faction led by former Prime Minister Taro Aso. Together, members from the Abe and Aso factions make up nearly half of the new cabinet and hold key positions.
From the Abe faction, Hiroshi Moriyama remains as Chief Cabinet Secretary, a role typically held by a close confidant of the Prime Minister and considered the government's second-in-command. Yasutoshi Nishimura retains his position as Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry and is also responsible for handling the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge issue.
From the Aso faction, Jun Suzuki continues as Finance Minister, while Taro Kono, who once vied for the LDP presidency against Kishida, remains as Minister for Digital Transformation. Another LDP presidential contender, faction-less female candidate Sanae Takaichi, who had received Abe's endorsement, also stays on as Minister in charge of Economic Security.
Meanwhile, two members each from the Abe and Aso factions make their cabinet debut, including Minister of Health, Labor, and Welfare Keizo Takemi and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki.
The third-largest faction, the Motegi faction, has three members in the cabinet, two of whom are first-timers: Defense Minister Toru Kihara and Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission Shoichi Matsumoto.
Kihara replaces Yasuhide Nakayama, a veteran politician not affiliated with any faction, who had previously served as Defense Minister under Aso. Earlier this month, photos emerged showing Nakayama with members of organized crime, sparking controversy. Nakayama later confirmed the allegations.
Tetsuro Nomura, the outgoing Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries from the Motegi faction, had angered Kishida last month by referring to the water from the Fukushima nuclear plant as "contaminated water" rather than the official term "treated water." Kishida demanded an apology and retraction.
With the removal of Nakayama and Nomura, the number of members from Kishida's own faction, the fourth-largest, has decreased from three to two in the cabinet. Kamikawa replaced Hayashi, also from the Kishida faction, as Foreign Minister, while the other member is the newly appointed Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, Masahito Moriyama.
The Nikai faction also sees two of its members making their cabinet debut, including Justice Minister Ryuji Koizumi. Earlier this month, Kishida had proposed that the Nikai faction nominate one member for the cabinet, which had led to dissatisfaction within the faction. Kishida quickly revised his statement, clarifying that two members from the Nikai faction would join the cabinet.
In the LDP's senior personnel adjustments, Taro Aso continues as LDP Vice-President, while Toshimitsu Motegi remains as Secretary-General, and Koichi Hagiuda retains his position as Chairman of the Policy Research Council. Additionally, Kishida appointed Yuko Obuchi, daughter of former Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and a member of the Motegi faction, as Chairperson of the Election Strategy Committee. After the reshuffle, two of the four major LDP positions are held by the Motegi faction.
With these changes, Kishida has managed to remove unpopular members, solidify his collaboration with the Abe, Aso, and Motegi factions, appease potential rivals like Taro Kono, and also court the Nikai faction, which can play a significant role in the presidential election. Increasing the number of female members in the cabinet to five is also seen as Kishida's attempt to boost cabinet approval ratings.
In recent months, due to public dissatisfaction with high inflation and blunders related to the digital ID system, Kishida's cabinet approval ratings have consistently been below 40%. An August poll by Kyodo News showed an approval rating of just 33.6%, with a disapproval rating reaching 50%, the highest since last December.
A recent poll released by NHK News this Monday showed an approval rating of 36% for Kishida's cabinet, a 3% increase from the previous month's results.
The LDP will hold its presidential election next September, where Kishida will seek re-election. The new cabinet is seen as Kishida's move to garner votes. Japanese media speculate that to consolidate his governance, Kishida might even dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early general elections. Currently, the LDP holds a majority in the House, and even with early elections, the LDP is likely to win, allowing Kishida to continue as Prime Minister.
Spotlight on the New Foreign and Defense Ministers
70-year-old Yoko Kamikawa, like her predecessor Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, is a graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. However, unlike Hayashi, who was known for his deep understanding of China, Kamikawa lacks diplomatic experience. Her most prominent role during the tenures of Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga was as Justice Minister.
During her tenure as Justice Minister, Kamikawa's most significant achievement was the approval of the death penalty for 13 key members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult, including its leader Shoko Asahara. She entered the Japanese House of Representatives in 2000 and, before serving as Justice Minister, held positions such as Minister in charge of Administrative Reform and Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications.
Western media believe Kishida's choice of Kamikawa as Foreign Minister aims to strengthen Japan-U.S. ties. While studying in the U.S., Kamikawa worked as an assistant to Montana Senator Max Baucus, who later served as the U.S. Ambassador to China from 2014 to 2017.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, welcomed Kamikawa's appointment as Foreign Minister, praising her as "highly capable."
On Thursday, in her first press conference as Foreign Minister, Kamikawa outlined three main priorities: positioning the U.S.-Japan alliance as the core of Japan's national security, enhancing Japan's global influence through soft power like technology, and ensuring public opinion is considered in diplomacy.
In contrast to Kamikawa's lack of diplomatic experience, 54-year-old new Defense Minister Toru Kihara has previously served as Vice Defense Minister under Abe and as an aide to the Prime Minister on national security policy under Suga.
He is a member of the LDP's "defense tribe," a group that advocates for Japan's Self-Defense Forces to move beyond a purely defensive posture.
Last year, the Japanese government revised three key documents, including the "National Security Strategy," to explicitly include Japan's possession of "counter-attack capabilities." Japan also plans to increase its defense budget to 2% of GDP over the next five years, aligning with NATO levels. Kihara played a crucial role in these revisions.
Currently, the LDP has a special task force discussing the relaxation of Japan's restrictions on exporting lethal weapons. Kihara is a member of this group. Additionally, he is a senior member of the Japan-China Parliamentarians' Association, a cross-party pro-Taiwan group of lawmakers, and has visited Taiwan multiple times.
In a survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun before the 2021 House of Representatives election, Kihara expressed support for enhancing Japan's defense capabilities and strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, while referring to China as a "threat."
Regarding Japan's new cabinet, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated in a regular press conference on Wednesday that the cabinet reshuffle is Japan's internal affair. He emphasized that China and Japan are important neighbors to each other, and maintaining a healthy and stable relationship between the two countries serves the common interests of both nations and the region.
Mao stressed that both sides should be guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, seize the opportunity of the 45th anniversary of the China-Japan Peace and Friendship Treaty this year, strengthen dialogue and communication, deepen practical cooperation, manage differences, and promote the construction of a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship that meets the requirements of the new era.
