Nearly two months after the July 26 coup in the West African nation of Niger, French President Macron announced the withdrawal of all French troops and the French ambassador from Niger.
Niger has been a primary military base for France in Africa and a significant source of uranium. Since 2021, West African nations including Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all former French colonies, have experienced military coups. Gabon, another former French colony, also underwent a coup this August.
These series of coups and France's troop withdrawals signify a diminishing French presence in Africa. After the withdrawal from Niger, Chad will be the only Sahel region country with a French military presence.
However, France still wields considerable influence over African nations through the currency tool, the CFA franc. Meanwhile, France's Western allies continue to counter Russia's influence in Africa. In Niger, U.S. military operations have resumed.
Another French Withdrawal
During an interview with French media on September 24, Macron stated that in light of Niger's reluctance to combat terrorism, France would end its military cooperation with the country. The withdrawal process will commence in the coming weeks and conclude by year's end.
France also decided to recall its ambassador to Niger, Sylvain Itte, who, along with other diplomats, will return to France "within the next few hours."
Prior to Macron's withdrawal announcement, Niger's military leaders declared the closure of their airspace to French military and commercial aircraft, aiming to reclaim full control over their skies. Last month, the coup leaders in Niger canceled the security defense agreement with France, demanding the departure of French troops and Ambassador Itte.
At the time, France rejected Niger's demands, insisting on recognizing only the Bazoum government as the legitimate government of Niger. The democratically elected President Bazoum remains under house arrest and has not been released. By the end of last month, the military government in Niger declared that since Itte had not left the country within the stipulated time, he no longer enjoyed diplomatic immunity and would be expelled.
Subsequently, the French embassy in Niger was blockaded by the military government, cutting off supplies and disrupting water and electricity. Itte and his staff had to rely on military rations for sustenance. Macron condemned the military government for holding Itte hostage.
An aide to Bazoum revealed that on Sunday, Bazoum spoke with Macron, urging him to recall Itte to prevent further escalation. In response to Macron's decision to withdraw troops and recall the ambassador, the Nigerien military government stated that this marked a new chapter in Niger's sovereignty, emphasizing that their territory no longer welcomes "imperialist and neo-colonialist forces."
Currently, France has stationed 5,650 soldiers in Africa, with nearly 1,500 each in Djibouti and Niger, making them the two countries with the most French troops.
In 2010, after five French citizens were kidnapped in Niger by Al-Qaeda, the Nigerien government allowed French troops to be stationed there. France established an airbase in Niger's capital, Niamey, deploying fighter jets and drones responsible for combating extremist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda branches in Niger and other countries.
However, France's counter-terrorism operations haven't significantly improved Niger's security situation. The Global Terrorism Index report by the independent think tank Institute for Economics & Peace showed that in 2021, Niger ranked eighth. That year, Niger witnessed the highest increase in terror-related deaths globally, with a 129% rise to 588 deaths.
From 2005 to 2020, Niger was France's third-largest uranium supplier. Over 30 French companies operate in Niger, including energy giant Total, nuclear giant Orano, and construction giant Vinci Group's subsidiary Sogea-Satom. However, Niger's resource development hasn't improved the living conditions of its citizens. Niger remains one of the least developed countries as recognized by the United Nations, with 40% of its government budget coming from foreign aid.
After the coup in Niger, pro-military supporters took to the streets, burning the French flag, storming the French embassy in Niger, and chanting "Down with France." Some supporters also displayed banners welcoming Russia.
Similar anti-French sentiments were evident in the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso. Both countries, after their respective coups, demanded the withdrawal of French troops. Mali invited the Russian mercenary group Wagner to be stationed there, while Burkina Faso referred to Russia as a "strategic ally," acknowledging Russia as a significant source of its arms.
Mid this month, Niger signed a joint defense security agreement with Mali and Burkina Faso, stipulating that an invasion of any one country would be considered an invasion of all three, with the other two providing military assistance.
Diminishing French Presence
A map of French military influence in Africa, created by the Swedish Defense Research Agency in 2019, showed that at the time, France had military operations in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, with military bases in the first four. After the completion of the withdrawal from Niger, Chad will be the only country in the Sahel region with a French military base.
However, France still has troops stationed in Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Djibouti, and Réunion. Despite the coup, Gabon hasn't requested the withdrawal of French troops. The French naval base is also located on the island of Mayotte in the Mozambique Channel.
As France's military presence diminishes, the importance of its trade with Africa is also declining.
Data from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies in 2022 showed that France's goods exports to Africa amounted to 28 billion euros and imports to 39 billion euros, ranking behind the EU, the Americas, non-EU Europe, and Asia. France's trade volume with Germany, the U.S., and China each exceeded its total trade with all of Africa.
For contemporary France, Africa's strategic significance is now less than other regions. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly lists the "Indo-Pacific region" as a priority for France outside of Europe.
Last year, France released its "Indo-Pacific Strategy" document, positioning itself as an Indo-Pacific nation and the only EU country with territories in the region. France has several overseas territories in the Indo-Pacific, including New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Réunion and Mayotte are also considered French territories in the Indo-Pacific.
The document emphasized the importance of the Indo-Pacific region to France, noting that trade with the region accounts for over a third of France's foreign trade (excluding EU trade). In the past decade, trade between France and the Indo-Pacific region increased by 49%.
France's Military Planning Law for 2024-2030, released this April, proposed that by 2030, France's annual defense budget would rise to over 60 billion euros, nearly double the 2017 level. One of the main reasons for increasing the defense budget is to boost investments in the Indo-Pacific region.
Although Africa's importance to France has declined, even with a reduced military presence, France still maintains influence in Africa through monetary tools. During the colonial era, France introduced the CFA franc in Africa. This currency includes two types of francs, one for the West African Economic and Monetary Union and another for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.
Including Niger, 14 countries in West and Central Africa still use the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro, significantly weakening the monetary policy autonomy of these countries. Additionally, countries using the CFA franc were required to deposit 50% of their foreign exchange reserves in the French Treasury.
It wasn't until 2020 that France reformed the CFA franc system, no longer requiring West African countries to use the West African franc. These countries no longer need to deposit 50% of their foreign exchange reserves in the French Treasury, but France will continue to act as the financial guarantor for the West African region.
The West African Economic and Monetary Union plans to introduce a unified currency in 2027, while six Central African countries, including Cameroon, will continue to use the CFA franc.
Michael Shurkin, a researcher at the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, wrote that after withdrawing from Niger, France can continue to influence Africa through soft power.
Statistics from the French Education Services Center show that from 2021 to 2022, France remains the most popular study destination for students from Sub-Saharan African countries. Among Sub-Saharan African students, 14% go to France, the highest number, followed by the U.S., Canada, and South Africa.
Shurkin believes that other Western countries like the U.S. and Germany, which haven't provoked local resentment in Africa like France, can fill the void left by France and counter Russia's expansion in Africa.
When Macron announced the withdrawal from Niger, the U.S. military stationed there had already resumed its regular military tasks in Niger.
James Hecker, commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe and Africa, announced two weeks ago that after negotiations with the Nigerien military government, the U.S. military resumed drone reconnaissance missions. Information disclosed by U.S. officials and documents released by WikiLeaks indicate that at least five members of the Nigerien coup military, including the coup leader and commander of the Nigerien presidential guard, Chiyani, had received U.S. military training.
The U.S. has 1,100 soldiers stationed in Niger and operates two bases, one of which is a drone base costing over $100 million. The U.S. military in Niger primarily conducts reconnaissance and intelligence gathering in Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria.
After the coup in Niger, the U.S. military suspended its regular tasks. Hecker stated that although current U.S. military activities in Niger haven't fully resumed to 100%, most have returned to normal.
In addition to holding its ground in Niger, according to reports from U.S. political news outlets, the U.S. is also sharing classified intelligence with African allies to counter Wagner's expanding influence in Africa. Before his death, Wagner's leader, Prigozhin, released an audio message on social media, announcing Wagner Group's support for those fighting for sovereignty and urging the Nigerien military to "call us" if needed.
