As the second Republican primary debate approaches, the political landscape is abuzz with anticipation, not just for the candidates set to take the stage, but notably for one who won't be present: former President Donald Trump. The debate, scheduled to be held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, will see GOP candidates spar on various issues, but Trump's decision to skip the event has become a focal point of discussion.
Trump's absence from the debate stage is not due to a lack of support. On the contrary, recent polls indicate that he holds a commanding lead over his GOP rivals. An ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted from September 15-20, found Trump enjoying the support of 54% of voters. This aligns with FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate, which pegs his lead at an average of 55.4%. Such numbers underscore Trump's continued popularity among the GOP electorate, despite the numerous legal battles he currently faces.
While Trump's GOP rivals are gearing up for the debate, the former president has charted a different course. He is set to kick off the week with a rally in the early-voting state of South Carolina, followed by a visit to Michigan, where he will address union workers amidst an ongoing strike. Trump's decision to counterprogram the debate with a prime-time speech in Detroit underscores his confidence and his strategy to appeal directly to voters.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has consistently placed second in recent polls, is one of the candidates hoping to make an impact in Trump's absence. DeSantis, known for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and conservative social policies, secured support from 15% of Republican voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. However, his campaign has faced challenges, including fundraising difficulties.
The race for third place is heating up, with several candidates vying for the position. Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador, and Mike Pence, the former Vice President, are among those in the mix. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are also in contention, with each hoping for a standout performance at the debate.
Trump's decision to skip the debate, coupled with his dominant position in the polls, presents both a challenge and an opportunity for his GOP rivals. While they will miss the chance to engage with him directly on the debate stage, they also have the opportunity to present their visions to voters and position themselves as viable alternatives.
The upcoming debate promises to be a pivotal moment in the GOP primary race. With Trump's shadow looming large, it remains to be seen which candidate can seize the moment and make a lasting impression on voters.
