In a surprising turn of events, a bill backed by House Republican leadership, aimed at averting a partial government shutdown for another month, faced defeat on the chamber floor. This development has made a suspension of some federal operations, the first since January 2019, almost inevitable.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had a slim margin for error, being able to afford the loss of only four Republican votes to pass the measure along party lines. However, the bill faced a significant setback, losing 21 GOP votes, resulting in a 232-198 defeat.

The bill's chances were already slim, given its nearly 30% cuts in discretionary spending to non-defense and non-veteran agencies. Such provisions ensured that the Democrat-controlled Senate would not have entertained it. Moreover, the White House had already signaled its intention to veto the measure, even if it miraculously reached President Biden's desk.

The Senate's delay in passing its own stopgap bill, expected only hours before the 11:59 p.m. deadline, combined with the House's failure, has all but confirmed the impending partial shutdown. This will result in the furlough of some federal workers and the military operating without pay.

In a move to show unity, McCarthy had earlier pledged to forgo his congressional salary in the event of a shutdown. The White House, however, dismissed this as mere theatrics. Shalanda Young, White House Office of Management and Budget Director, pointed out that constitutionally, members of Congress must be paid during a shutdown. She contrasted McCarthy's gesture with the real-world implications for federal workers, stating, "the guy who picks up the trash in my office won't get a paycheck."

McCarthy's stance on the Senate spending bill is also clear. He has committed not to take up the Senate bill, which would keep the federal government running until November 17th. House Republicans have expressed their opposition to the bill, particularly over its $6 billion aid package to Ukraine and the perceived lack of funding for U.S. border security.

The internal divisions within the Republican caucus have become evident. Hardline members, led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), have called for McCarthy's replacement, while moderates have suggested collaborating with Democrats to pass a funding measure and avoid a shutdown.

President Biden, addressing the situation, labeled the congressional Republicans' failure to fund U.S. military operations as "a disgrace." He emphasized the commitment of service members who would continue to serve without pay, calling it an "absolute dereliction of duty."

As the clock ticks, essential federal workers, U.S. military service members, and White House staff are expected to continue their duties, even in the face of a shutdown. While federal benefits programs such as Social Security and Medicare will remain funded, many agencies will furlough non-essential employees.