As the United States shifts its focus to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the European Union, feeling sidelined, is making moves in areas where it can enhance its diplomatic influence.
On Nov. 8, the European Commission issued its 2023 enlargement package, suggesting that the EU Council start membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.
Ukraine and Moldova applied for EU membership in February and March of last year, respectively, following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Less than four months after their applications, they became candidate countries, marking the fastest ascension to this status.
Following the Commission's latest recommendation, the EU's full membership will discuss at the December summit whether to accept the Commission's advice. Unanimous agreement from all 27 EU member states is required to initiate membership negotiations with Ukraine.
Hungarian officials have already expressed concerns about Ukraine's pace of reform, and the negotiation process is the most complex and time-consuming part of joining the EU.
Croatia, the last country to join the EU, took 10 years from application to membership.
Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia
The European Commission stated on Wednesday that in recent months, the Ukrainian government and parliament have made progress on seven reform areas proposed by the Commission, demonstrating the country's determination to push for reforms even during wartime to meet EU standards.
Last year, the Commission outlined the reforms needed for Ukraine to start membership negotiations, including judicial reform, weakening oligarchic power, anti-corruption measures, and ensuring minority rights. The Commission's latest assessment found that Ukraine has completed two reforms and made progress on five others.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, praised Ukraine's progress but also made it clear that the country needs to continue its reform efforts. She mentioned that the Commission would set out the negotiating framework, which will be reviewed by all EU members in March next year and will inform Ukraine of the progress of its reforms. At that time, the 27 member states will ultimately decide whether to formally start membership negotiations with Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the Commission's recommendation a "historic step" and reiterated that Ukraine "must" become a member of the EU.
Zelenskyy's senior advisor recently complained in an interview with U.S. media that the Israel-Palestine conflict had diverted attention from Ukraine in both the U.S. and Europe, warning that such shifts could benefit Russia.
Previously, U.S. President Joe Biden asked Congress to approve $100 billion in new funding for security issues in Ukraine and Israel, including $64 billion for aid to Ukraine. However, calls from Republicans in the House of Representatives to stop aid to Ukraine are growing, arguing that the U.S. should spend the money on domestic issues instead.
At the end of last month, the newly appointed Speaker of the House, Republican Johnson, announced the introduction of a separate aid bill for Israel, meaning that the House would delay discussing aid to Ukraine.
The European Commission expressed support for Ukraine as the U.S. shifted its attention. In addition to extending an olive branch to Ukraine, the Commission also suggested that the EU Council start membership negotiations with Moldova, a former Soviet state with a population of just 2.6 million, located between Ukraine and Romania.
For Georgia, which has fought a war with Russia, the Commission's latest assessment noted actions taken in combating organized crime, ensuring gender equality, and improving human rights, recommending that the EU Council grant Georgia EU candidate status.
The EU will hold a summit from Dec. 14 to 15, where the 27 member states will discuss the Commission's new membership recommendations. The Commission's proposals must be unanimously agreed upon by all member states to be adopted.
The Long Road to EU Membership
According to the EU's official website, there are three steps for a European country to join the EU: becoming a candidate country, negotiating membership, and ratifying the treaty. Ukraine is about to embark on the second step, which is the most time-consuming.
In this phase, candidate countries must negotiate about 35 chapters under six themes with the EU, reforming domestic policies and laws to meet EU standards. These negotiations cover various areas including foreign policy, defense policy, public governance, the rule of law, financial systems, taxation, customs, food safety, agricultural development, and consumer rights.
Statistics from the Pew Research Center show that among the current 27 EU members, the average time from the start of membership negotiations to the signing of the accession treaty is four years, accounting for half of the entire accession process.
Eleven members took over five years to negotiate, with Portugal, Spain, and Croatia all taking more than six years. Austria, Finland, and Sweden were the quickest, taking just over a year.
The duration of a candidate country's negotiations mainly depends on the extent of reforms needed and the attitude of EU member states. Turkey applied for membership in 1987 and began negotiations in 2005. In 2018, the EU suspended negotiations with Turkey, accusing it of democratic backsliding.
Although the main EU countries support Ukraine's membership, Ukraine has many areas in need of reform, especially regarding corruption and oligarchic networks. Even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's economic strength was significantly less than that of EU member states.
EU data shows that in 2020, Ukraine's GDP per capita was only 30% of the EU average. Some EU members are concerned that with economically weaker new members joining, the "membership fees" paid by older members will rise, while the grants and subsidies they receive will decrease.
Last month, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban bluntly stated that there are many problems with Ukraine's accession, the first of which is "how much money it will cost." Orban's advisor also pointed out this month that Hungary would not support Ukraine's EU membership unless Ukraine amended its laws to protect minority rights.
Considering the complex reforms needed in Ukraine and the dissatisfaction of some EU member states, Tinatin Akhvlediani, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies, said it is impossible to predict how long it will take for Ukraine to join the EU, "possibly within 10 years."
