The political landscape for the 2024 U.S. presidential race could witness an unexpected twist, according to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management. In a bold prediction, Cembalest anticipates that President Joe Biden might withdraw from the upcoming election, citing health concerns as a potential reason for his decision.
In a tribute to the late Byron Wien, former JPMorgan market strategist known for his annual forecasts, Cembalest has released his list of 'Ten Surprises' for 2024. Among them, the most striking is his forecast that President Biden, currently 81 years old, might drop out of the presidential race sometime between the significant Super Tuesday primaries on March 5 and the November election.
This prediction is based on several factors, including Biden's current approval ratings and the general context of his presidency, marked by significant job creation in the wake of COVID vaccine rollouts and economic reopening.
The implications of such a withdrawal are profound, with the Democratic National Committee potentially having to nominate a replacement candidate. Cembalest's prediction adds to the ongoing speculations regarding Biden's candidacy, as he faces increased scrutiny over his age and fluctuating poll numbers.
Despite these challenges, Biden remains a favored candidate within the Democratic party, with polls indicating strong support compared to other potential nominees like Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips.
Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her role, faces public disapproval, with more than half of respondents in a FiveThirtyEight survey expressing dissatisfaction with her performance. This adds another layer of complexity to the Democratic party's strategy for the upcoming election.
On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump leads the race against other GOP hopefuls such as Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and biotech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy. Current public opinion surveys suggest that if the presidential election were held today, Biden would face a challenging contest against Trump.
In addition to the political forecast, Cembalest's list of surprises for 2024 includes several other predictions, such as the roll-out of an inhaled COVID vaccine, a nationwide boycott of driverless cars following accidents, and potential blackouts in various states due to natural gas shortages. He also foresees continued instability in the lending sector but expects stocks of U.S. regional banks to perform well.
These predictions underscore the uncertain and dynamic nature of the current political and economic climate, highlighting the need for preparedness and adaptability in the face of unforeseen developments.
Cembalest's foresight, while speculative, provides a thought-provoking perspective on potential events and shifts that could shape the year 2024, particularly in the political realm. Whether his predictions will materialize remains to be seen, but they undoubtedly contribute to the discourse surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the broader socio-economic landscape.
