The latest poll from American Research Group Inc. reveals a tight race in the New Hampshire GOP primary between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The survey, which included 600 likely voters, shows both candidates tied at 40 percent each for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination. Notably, Haley is gaining more traction among male voters, voters under 49, and undeclared/independent voters, challenging Trump's long-standing hold over the GOP electorate.
The results come in the wake of Trump's significant win in the Iowa caucus, where he led by a 30-point margin against Ron DeSantis. Haley, perceived as Trump's primary challenger, secured third place in Iowa but is showing a stronger presence in the New Hampshire primary scheduled for January 23. Haley has closed a gap that was once a four-point lead for Trump in early January, as per a previous poll by the same group.
The detailed breakdown of the poll results shows Haley's strength among male voters (44 percent) compared to Trump's 37 percent. Trump, however, maintains a lead among female voters (43 percent to Haley's 36 percent). Haley's support is particularly strong among college-educated Republicans and is substantially preferred by undeclared voters in New Hampshire (51 percent) compared to Trump's 24 percent.
These trends reflect a shifting dynamic in the GOP primary race, with Haley emerging as a formidable challenger to Trump's dominance. Her campaign has focused on presenting a viable alternative to Trump, capitalizing on the demographic of moderate Republicans who may be looking for a change.
As the New Hampshire primary approaches, Trump has intensified his attacks on Haley, particularly on Truth Social, where he mocked her and questioned her policy positions. Haley, on her part, has called out Trump for avoiding debates and positioned herself as ready to take on either Trump or Democratic President Joe Biden in a debate.
The poll's findings also coincide with a separate Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey in Georgia, indicating Trump's lead over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up. The survey shows Trump leading Biden 45 percent to 37 percent in Georgia, a crucial swing state. Biden's challenges stem from declining support among independent and Black voters, key demographics that contributed to his 2020 victory.
Trump's lead in Georgia, a state pivotal in Biden's 2020 victory, signals potential challenges for the Democratic incumbent. The poll indicates a notable decline in Biden's support among independent and Black voters, crucial demographics in his previous win. With 20 percent of Georgians currently undecided or favoring neither candidate, the desire for more diverse choices in presidential contenders is evident.
These developments come as voters express varied sentiments toward both Trump and Biden, with some Georgians considering independent candidates. The dissatisfaction with the binary choice between Trump and Biden is palpable, as voters like Andrew Harper of Ben Hill County express disillusionment with both candidates, considering alternatives like writing in another name on the ballot.
As the race for the White House intensifies, the evolving dynamics within the GOP and across the broader electorate are pivotal. Haley's rising profile in the Republican primaries poses a significant challenge to Trump's previously unchallenged dominance in the party. Meanwhile, Trump's advantage in critical swing states like Georgia suggests a potentially competitive presidential race in 2024.
The political landscape leading up to the 2024 elections remains fluid and unpredictable. With the potential for more surprises and shifts in voter preferences, the primaries and the general election promise to be closely contested battles, reflecting the changing tides in American politics.
