Iran has signaled to the United States, through intermediaries in Oman, that it intends to respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a manner that aims to avoid major escalation, as Tehran presses demands including a Gaza truce, according to Iranian sources. The message, conveyed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman on Sunday, underscores Iran's cautious approach as it weighs its options for retaliation while seeking to deter further Israeli actions without triggering a wider conflict.
The White House declined to comment on any messages from Iran but stated that the United States has communicated to Tehran that it was not involved in the strike on the embassy. A source familiar with U.S. intelligence, while not aware of the specific message conveyed via Oman, noted that Iran has been clear in its intention to launch a "controlled" and "non-escalatory" response using regional proxies to target Israel.
The diplomatic messaging suggests that Iran is treading carefully in the wake of the April 1 attack, which killed a top Iranian general and marked an escalation in the violence that has spread through the region since the Gaza war began. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed that Israel "must be punished and it shall be," emphasizing the gravity of the attack, which he equated to an assault on Iranian soil.
According to the Iranian sources, Amirabdollahian signaled Tehran's willingness to de-escalate on the condition that certain demands are met, including a permanent Gaza ceasefire - a prospect that Israel has ruled out as it seeks to crush Hamas. Iran also sought the revival of talks over its disputed nuclear program, which have been stalled for nearly two years, and assurances that the United States would not get involved in the event of a "controlled attack" on Israel by Iran - a demand that the United States rejected in a response delivered via Oman.
Experts on Iranian diplomacy noted that such tough demands from Tehran are characteristic of the hard-nosed approach it takes in negotiations, but the contacts nevertheless point to Iran's interest in warding off major conflict. Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, described Khamenei as being "trapped in a strategic conundrum," forced to choose between restoring deterrence and credibility among its allies or risking a destructive Israeli response, likely with U.S. assistance.
The Iranian sources revealed that the U.S. has asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack, it will stand by Israel. In response, Iran believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war, and therefore, its retaliation could be restrained, potentially relying on its allies and avoiding direct strikes on Israeli territory.
The U.S. Middle East envoy has reportedly called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel. A source familiar with the issue suggested that the U.S. might agree to revive nuclear talks if it could prevent a conflagration, noting that the price of talks, even without reaching an agreement, would be well worth it if it minimized the risk of regional escalation that could draw in the United States.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group encapsulated Iran's dilemma as needing "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head." He emphasized that Israel is much more unpredictable than the U.S., and the Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that an attack on Israel may fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid, rather than delivering the desired deterrent effect.
As tensions continue to rise amid expectations of Iranian retaliation against Israel, the international community has called for restraint and de-escalation. Iran's mission to the United Nations suggested that a UN Security Council condemnation of Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus could have obviated the need for Iran to punish Israel. Meanwhile, the United States, Germany, and Russia have urged all actors in the region to exercise maximum restraint and avoid further escalation.
