In a significant victory for the anti-junta resistance in Myanmar, rebels have declared control over the critical border town of Myawaddy, forcing about 200 military personnel to withdraw to a bridge leading to Thailand. The capture of Myawaddy, a strategically important trading point with Thailand, is the latest in a string of rebel wins against the military-run government, which has been battling insurgencies on multiple fronts since last October.

The Karen National Union (KNU), one of Myanmar's most powerful ethnic armed organizations, announced that its armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), had captured the last remaining military base in Myawaddy on Wednesday night. "Today KNU-led joint resistance forces captured the remaining military base in Myawaddy," said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for Myanmar's National Unity Government, a shadow administration of ousted lawmakers and anti-junta groups. "This is a crucial victory for our revolution since Myawaddy is an important border town for the junta, one of the main (sources of) income from border trade."

The retreat of junta troops in Myawaddy signals the potential loss of another key border trading outpost with direct highway access to parts of central Myanmar. Saw Taw Nee, spokesperson for the KNU, said that about 200 fleeing Myanmar soldiers had gathered at a border crossing into Thailand on Thursday, with news outlet Khit Thit reporting that Thai authorities were in talks with the soldiers to decide whether to grant them refuge.

The assault on Myawaddy began last week, with the KNU claiming that it had attacked a junta camp near the town, forcing some 500 security personnel and their families to surrender. Political analyst Than Soe Naing noted that the military has already lost control of areas along Myanmar's borders with Bangladesh, China, and India, while suffering a significant loss of manpower that has pushed it to introduce a draft for the first time. "Next the resistance forces might go after major towns across Myanmar," he added.

Border crossings in the area remain open for civilians, with a large number of people arriving in Thailand from Myanmar. Police official Borwornphop Soontornlekha, the immigration superintendent in Tak, the province where Mae Sot is located, said, "Usually there are about 2,000 people who cross into Mae Sot from Myawaddy each day but the last three days the number was almost 4,000 a day."

The Thai military has stepped up security on its side of the border, using army vehicles equipped with roof-mounted machine guns. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who earlier told Reuters that the Myanmar junta was "losing strength" and pushed to open talks with the regime, said on Thursday that the recent fighting should not spill into his country's airspace. Thailand remains neutral in the Myanmar conflict and is able to accept up to 100,000 people displaced by the turmoil, according to its foreign minister.

The loss of Myawaddy is a significant blow to the Myanmar junta, which has been struggling to maintain control since seizing power in a 2021 coup that sparked a nationwide armed resistance. The town, with a population of 200,000, is also home to multiple compounds that form billion-dollar online scam factories, many of them staffed by foreign nationals forced to work in conditions akin to modern-day slavery.

Concerns have been raised among resistance fighters and residents in Myawaddy about the possibility of the military launching an air offensive on the town, as it has done in other areas it has lost control of. A 45-year-old resident told CNN that fighter jets had been buzzing overhead and she had sent her eight children across the border to Thailand for their safety.

The fall of Myawaddy to the resistance forces underscores the junta's inability to reverse its defeats and regain initiative. "Step by step it's just watching these losses and not being able to do anything in response," said independent Myanmar researcher Kim Jolliffe. "That's why it further confirms the junta is going to fall because it's just not at any point displayed the ability to strategically reverse the situation and regain initiative."