Tesla shares experienced a significant 15% surge on Wednesday morning following CEO Elon Musk's announcement that the electric-vehicle company plans to begin production of new affordable EV models by early 2025. The news came during Tesla's earnings call on Tuesday, where the company reported disappointing first-quarter numbers, with revenue falling 9% year over year - its steepest annual decline since 2012.
Despite the lackluster financial results, Musk's comments about the new EV models, which are expected to start production earlier than the previously anticipated second half of 2025, appeared to revitalize investor enthusiasm. Bank of America analysts expressed bullish optimism in an investor note on Wednesday, upgrading Tesla stock from neutral to buy while maintaining their $220 price target. They cited Tesla's positive business outlook as it prepares to launch new vehicle models and license its driver assistance system as key factors in their decision.
"In the near-term the tide in news flow appears to suggest the risk to the stock is skewing more positively," the Bank of America analysts wrote.
However, not all analysts shared the same sentiment. UBS analysts reiterated their neutral rating of Tesla stock and lowered their price target to $147 from $160, expressing skepticism about the company's talk. "Increasingly, TSLA is a play on autonomy, and while progress is being made, we are cautious on near-term viability," they wrote in a note. "We see limited growth for current lineup and lack of clarity on what these 'new vehicles' could bring."
During the earnings call, Musk took a page from Mad Men's Don Draper's playbook, pivoting the conversation away from Tesla's faltering car sales and positioning the company as a pioneer in autonomous ridesharing. He emphasized that investors should view Tesla not as an automaker but as a digital platform akin to Uber and Airbnb for an autonomous fleet.
"The way to think of Tesla is almost entirely in terms of solving autonomy, and being able to turn on that autonomy for a gigantic fleet," Musk said, adding that more details will be revealed at Tesla's August 8 robotaxi unveiling.
This shift in focus has created a market dissonance, with Musk enthusiastically trying to convince shareholders that Tesla can swiftly "solve autonomy" while the market flashes strong signals that investors want Tesla to deliver cheaper EVs. Citi analysts wrote in a note after earnings, "We like Tesla's product pivot that appears to prioritize speed and launch/redesign on existing capacity."
Musk went on to encourage autonomous non-believers to seek investments elsewhere. "If somebody doesn't believe that Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. And we will. And we are."
Despite the market's enthusiasm for Tesla's plans, some observers expressed skepticism over the company's ambitious goals. Jefferies analysts noted, "Commitment to robotaxi is unwavering, still without providing clarity on timeframe and business model." UBS analysts were even more critical, stating, "We don't doubt that FSD is making progress, but TSLA has talked up autonomy before, and we are skeptical that TSLA will have a 'cyber-cab' or ride-hailing service this decade."
