U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin probably did not directly order the killing of opposition politician Alexei Navalny at an Arctic prison camp in February, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. The assessment, based on a range of information, including classified intelligence and an analysis of public facts, has been shared with some European intelligence agencies, but some European security officials remain skeptical of the findings, given Putin's tight grip on Russia.
Navalny, who was 47 at the time of his death, was Putin's most vocal domestic critic. His allies, who have been branded as extremists by Russian authorities, have accused Putin of having Navalny murdered and have vowed to provide evidence to support their allegation. The Kremlin has consistently denied any state involvement in Navalny's death.
The U.S. assessment, according to people familiar with the matter, is based on factors such as the timing of Navalny's death and how it overshadowed Putin's re-election. However, the assessment does not absolve the Russian leader of overall responsibility for Navalny's death, given the opposition politician's long history of being targeted by Russian authorities, his imprisonment on charges the West deemed politically motivated, and his poisoning in 2020 with a nerve agent, which the Kremlin also denies.
Leonid Volkov, a close ally of Navalny, dismissed the U.S. assessment, telling The Wall Street Journal that "the idea of Putin being not informed and not approving killing Navalny is ridiculous." The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees U.S. intelligence agencies, declined to comment on the issue.
Last month, Putin called Navalny's death "sad" and claimed that he had been prepared to hand the jailed politician over to the West in a prisoner exchange, provided Navalny never return to Russia. Navalny's allies confirmed that such talks had been underway, with Putin himself acknowledging the existence of a prisoner exchange deal just days before Navalny's death.
The European Union and the United States have directly blamed Russia for Navalny's death and have moved toward imposing new sanctions on the Kremlin in response. The U.S. intelligence assessment, however, has the potential to complicate the international community's response to the incident and its efforts to hold Russia accountable.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, upon being informed of the Wall Street Journal's report, dismissed the assessment as lacking in substance. "I wouldn't say it's a high-quality material that deserves any attention," Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian media. "Some very empty arguments. Apparently, they planted it for Saturday reading to the world audience," he added.
The differing views among U.S. intelligence agencies, European security officials, and Navalny's allies underscore the ongoing debate surrounding Putin's role in the opposition leader's death. While the U.S. assessment suggests that Putin may not have directly ordered the killing, critics argue that the Russian president's longstanding campaign against Navalny and the opposition movement cannot be overlooked when assigning responsibility for his death.
