As Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) prepares to force a vote on her motion to eject Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) as speaker of the House, the internal divisions within the Republican Party have come into sharp focus. Despite near-universal consensus among lawmakers that allowing a single member to trigger a snap vote on removing the speaker is a recipe for chaos, both parties acknowledge that there is little chance of changing the rule before January.
Speaker Johnson finds himself in a precarious position, unable to alter the rules with only Republican votes due to the opposition from rebels on his right flank, who insisted that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy empower them by permitting a single lawmaker to force a vote of no confidence. At the same time, Democrats, while willing to save Johnson from Greene's initial ouster attempt next week, have made it clear that their support is not guaranteed if Greene or another disgruntled member tries again.
"I don't know how you put that genie back in the box," Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) said about reforming the motion to vacate the speakership this year, a change he supports.
The situation leaves Johnson virtually powerless to officially neutralize one of the most significant threats to his leadership, even as he has criticized the low threshold for voting on removing a speaker as having "harmed this office" and the majority. It also paves the way for more discontented colleagues to attempt to force a confrontation with him in the coming months.
Moreover, most Republicans doubt that Johnson or Democrats have much to gain by engaging in a battle over changing the rule. With just over six months remaining before the next round of leadership elections, a growing number of Republicans are already predicting that Johnson would not secure the top spot again if he runs. Attempting to shield the speakership from his disgruntled hardliners only invites more of them to lash out, further complicating the speaker's future path to remain in leadership.
"There would be too much pushback" if Johnson tried to raise the threshold for forcing a referendum on him, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) said, advising Republicans to focus on issues like the border rather than the "distraction" of a rules change fight until Election Day.
The internal backlash over a potential change to speaker-deposing rules has already hit Johnson, with some conservatives, such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), preemptively threatening to side with Greene in favor of firing him if he pursues such a change.
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are planning to make it more difficult to remove a speaker if they regain control of the House in January. Until then, they believe the responsibility lies with Republicans to come forward with an offer to fix a problem they created. Additionally, Democrats recognize the political reality that more GOP chaos on display can only benefit them on the campaign trail.
"I'm not a cheap date. ... It's not our job to bail out the Republicans every time they want to overthrow their speaker," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), emphasizing that deal-making would be necessary for multiple Johnson salvage votes.
Many progressives are also reluctant to provide support to Johnson, whose conservatism makes him the caucus' natural ideological enemy. Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said that changing the rules for a speaker-ousting vote would be "another move to help Mike Johnson, who supported overturning the election and has been an apologist for crazy right-wing ideas in the country."
Despite the challenges, Republicans have increasingly floated the idea of a rules change in private meetings, including with Johnson. The speaker acknowledged in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, last month that he had been encouraged to endorse a higher threshold for the motion but that the idea did not have a "majority of the full House."
As Greene's threat looms, rank-and-file members, rather than party leaders, would likely craft any potential rules change proposal to help distance Johnson from the horse-trading involved. However, many of Johnson's allies recognize that if Democrats pile on too many demands, it likely closes the door to changing the rules until January.
