Iran is set to hold a runoff presidential election on July 5, pitting reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian against hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. The announcement came after the first round of voting on Friday resulted in the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic's history, with more than 60% of voters abstaining.
Pezeshkian, a little-known reformist and cardiac surgeon, emerged as the leading candidate with 10.4 million votes, followed closely by Jalili, who garnered 9.4 million votes. The election spokesman, Mohsen Eslami, confirmed the results, noting that no candidate secured the required 50% plus one vote needed to win outright. This runoff will be only the second in Iran's presidential election history, the first occurring in 2005.
The low turnout, which stood at 39.9%, reflects widespread public discontent and apathy towards the electoral process. Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa program, remarked, "Let's look at it as a protest in its own right: A very widespread choice to reject what's on offer - both the candidates and the system. That tells us a lot about public opinion and apathy, frustration. It sort of brings it all together."
The backdrop of this election is marked by significant economic hardships and social unrest in Iran. The country's economic struggles and the populace's disillusionment with the Shiite theocracy have intensified public frustration. This sentiment was evident in the more than one million voided ballots, typically seen as a protest vote.
Pezeshkian, who has been associated with reformist policies, faces the challenge of galvanizing voters for the runoff. His campaign has focused on outreach and potential reforms, despite skepticism about his effectiveness. In a statement aimed at boosting voter turnout, Pezeshkian commented on his intent to improve relations with the West, a stance that has drawn mixed reactions from the political establishment.
Jalili, known for his hard-line stances and famously described by CIA director Bill Burns as "stupefyingly opaque" in negotiations, has strong support among conservatives. His campaign has been bolstered by endorsements from other hard-line figures, including Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Qalibaf, who finished third in the first round, quickly endorsed Jalili, criticizing Pezeshkian for his associations with President Hassan Rouhani and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The runoff election occurs at a time of heightened regional tensions, particularly in the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict and Iran's escalating nuclear activities. Iran's continued enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade levels has kept it at odds with Western powers, adding another layer of complexity to the election.
With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now 85, the next president could play a crucial role in shaping Iran's future leadership. Insiders and analysts suggest that Khamenei seeks a fiercely loyal president to ensure a smooth transition of power. Jalili's anti-Western views contrast sharply with Pezeshkian's more moderate approach, making the outcome of the runoff pivotal for Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
The presidential race also underscores the broader legitimacy crisis faced by Iran's clerical establishment. The significant boycott of the election, including by figures such as imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi and 2009 Green Movement leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, highlights the deep-seated discontent.
As Iran approaches the runoff, the question remains whether Pezeshkian can mobilize the 60% of voters who abstained in the first round. Vakil remarked, "It's going to rest on if the general public, that 60% who stayed home, are going to come out and protect themselves from those hard-line views" that Jalili holds.
