A recent Morning Consult poll reveals a growing sentiment among voters that President Joe Biden should be replaced as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election, following his performance in a debate against former President Donald Trump. The survey, which included 2,068 respondents, was released to Axios on Friday, highlighting significant concerns within the Democratic Party about Biden's viability as their nominee.
According to the poll, 60% of voters believe Biden should "definitely" or "probably" be replaced as the Democratic candidate. This sentiment is not confined to opposition voters; among Democratic voters, 21% believe Biden should "definitely not" be replaced, while 20% say "probably not." The data indicates a notable division within the party regarding Biden's candidacy.
When asked to choose between Biden and Trump, 45% of respondents favored Biden, while 44% preferred Trump. This narrow margin mirrors the results of a similar poll conducted after Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts related to a $130,000 hush money payment. Despite Biden maintaining a slight edge over Trump, the poll underscores the precarious nature of his lead.
The debate performance appears to have been a critical factor in shaping voter opinion. According to the poll, 57% of viewers felt Trump outperformed Biden, including 19% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 93% of Republicans. The debate performance has intensified discussions within the Democratic Party about Biden's capacity to lead another term.
Seth Schuster, a spokesperson for Biden's campaign, criticized the interpretation of the poll results. Schuster emphasized that Biden still leads Trump by one point and stated firmly, "Joe Biden is not dropping out." The campaign maintains confidence in Biden's ability to secure a second term despite the growing calls for a change in candidate.
The Morning Consult poll was conducted through online interviews and was weighted to represent a target sample of registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points, according to Morning Consult. The results reflect the ongoing debate and divisions within the Democratic Party as they consider the best path forward for the upcoming presidential election.
The poll's findings have amplified the ongoing debate within the Democratic Party regarding Biden's candidacy. The president's age, at 81, has been a recurring point of contention, with many party members expressing concerns about his ability to withstand the rigors of another term. The debate performance has transformed these concerns from quiet whispers to vocal demands for a new candidate.
The situation recalls historical instances where incumbents faced significant pressure from within their own party. Notably, in 1968, President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-election amid growing opposition and the turbulent political climate. The Democratic Party's convention that year, held in Chicago, was marked by protests and a contested nomination process. The parallels to 2024 are striking as the party grapples with internal divisions and external pressures.
Speculation about potential replacements for Biden has intensified. Names such as Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer have been floated as possible candidates. However, no clear frontrunner has emerged, and each potential candidate comes with their own set of challenges and advantages.
If Biden were to withdraw, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) would face a complex and potentially contentious process to select a new nominee. Delegates pledged to Biden would become uncommitted, leading to a scramble among candidates to secure their support. The last brokered convention for the Democrats was in 1952, underscoring the rarity and potential volatility of such an event.
