France's political rivals are mobilizing to counteract the significant gains made by the right-wing National Rally (RN) party in the first round of the national elections. The RN, led by Marine Le Pen, secured approximately 33% of the vote, positioning it as a formidable force and potentially paving the way for the most conservative government France has seen since World War II.
The first round of voting, marked by a high turnout of nearly 68%, saw the New Popular Front, a leftist alliance, come in second with about 28% of the vote, while President Emmanuel Macron's centrist group finished third with around 20%, according to the French Interior Ministry.
"The French have almost wiped out the 'Macronist' bloc," Le Pen declared following the initial results. She interpreted the outcome as a clear signal of voters' "willingness to turn the page after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power."
In response, the left-wing coalition and Macron's centrist alliance are strategizing to block the RN's momentum. The left-wing coalition announced it would withdraw its candidates in districts where they finished third, encouraging voters to support candidates who stand a better chance of defeating the RN in the decisive runoff elections on July 7. Similarly, Macron's alliance indicated that some of its candidates would step down to support other anti-RN candidates.
Out of the National Assembly's 577 seats, 78 were won outright by candidates who secured more than 50% of the vote in their districts. Among these, 38 seats were claimed by the National Rally, including one by Le Pen herself.
Polling projections suggest that the RN is poised to hold the most seats in the next National Assembly, but it remains uncertain whether it will achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats. This political shift comes at a time when many French citizens are grappling with inflation, low incomes, and a growing sentiment of disenfranchisement brought on by globalization.
Le Pen's party has capitalized on these frustrations, particularly in small towns and farming communities where Macron and the Parisian political elite are perceived as out of touch. The RN's platform, which attributes many of France's issues to immigration, has resonated with these voters.
If the RN or another opposition force secures a majority, Macron will be compelled to appoint a prime minister from the new majority, leading to a situation known as "cohabitation." This would result in a government that implements policies divergent from Macron's agenda, weakening his influence both domestically and on the international stage.
Macron's dissolution of parliament earlier this month and the call for a snap election, following the RN's success in the European Parliament election, was a high-stakes gamble. It was aimed at rallying moderate forces to prevent the RN from gaining power, but the strategy appears to have backfired.
Le Pen has urged voters to deliver an "absolute majority" to the RN in parliament, promising a new government led by party President Jordan Bardella as prime minister to facilitate France's "recovery."
The urgency to block the RN's path to power has drawn comparisons to previous political maneuvers in France aimed at preventing far-right victories. The so-called "republican front" strategy, where mainstream parties collaborate to defeat far-right candidates, is being tested once again.
Financial markets reacted positively to the RN's first-round results, with a sense of relief that their gains were not greater. However, the potential for an RN-led government raises significant questions about France's future direction, especially regarding its position within the European Union and its domestic policies.
Human rights groups have voiced concerns about the RN's "France first" policies and their implications for ethnic minorities, while economists question the feasibility of the party's ambitious spending plans.
As the runoff elections approach, the political landscape in France remains highly volatile. The potential for a hung parliament, making France ungovernable for the remainder of Macron's presidency, looms large.
In a bid to appeal to left-wing voters, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suspended plans for an unemployment reform that would have reduced jobseekers' benefits. This move may facilitate greater cooperation among anti-RN factions.
Meanwhile, RN lawmakers are urging center-right politicians in the Republicans (LR) party, which received less than 7% of the first-round vote, to withdraw from districts where their absence could benefit the RN.
