Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden faced off in a highly anticipated debate that has left the Democratic Party grappling with concerns about Biden's capability to continue as the nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Trump's sharp criticism of Biden's performance has added fuel to the fire, leading to widespread speculation about potential replacements for the Democratic ticket.
In a poll conducted earlier this year, former First Lady Michelle Obama was found to trail Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2024 election. The survey by DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners, which included 1,000 likely voters, showed Trump receiving 47% of the vote compared to Obama's 44%. Another poll conducted in March had her trailing by an even wider margin, with 50% of the vote to Trump's 43%.
Despite Michelle Obama's repeated statements that she has no intention of running for president, the latest debate performance by Biden has reignited discussions about her potential candidacy. Crystal Carson, the director of communications for Obama's office, reiterated in March that she supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' reelection campaign. Nonetheless, political analysts and voters alike continue to speculate about her stepping in as a Democratic savior.
"While many Democrats would like to see the party's savior parachute into the convention, the chances of it being Obama are slim and none," Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek. "Still, the fact that polling suggests that she would do about as well as Biden against Trump again suggests that 2024 is almost purely a referendum on Trump."
Biden's debate performance has amplified calls within the Democratic Party for a new nominee. The President's age, at 81, and his cognitive sharpness have been focal points of concern. "Joe Biden's age is not his problem," Trump said during a campaign event in Chesapeake, Virginia. "It's his competence."
Various Democratic leaders are reportedly contemplating a push for Biden to step aside before the party's convention in August. Names floated as potential replacements include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. However, polling indicates that none of these candidates perform significantly better than Biden in matchups against Trump.
Kamala Harris, the most obvious choice given her position, faces her own challenges. Real Clear Politics' polling average shows Harris losing to Trump by six points, while Biden only trails by two points. "The major question of a last-minute Harris candidacy is whether or not the campaign could improve her viability enough over the next five months to defeat Trump," noted Jacqueline Newman, a managing partner at the matrimonial law firm Berkman Bottger Newman & Schein LLP.
Governor Gavin Newsom, often seen as a potential future leader of the Democratic Party, has also been suggested as a candidate. However, he has publically stated his support for Biden, complicating any potential candidacy. Moreover, polling data does not favor Newsom against Trump, with a March poll showing Trump leading Newsom by 17 points.
The debate has also brought other potential candidates into the spotlight, including former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and even former Vice President Al Gore. Despite their lower profiles in current polling, the unsettled nature of the Democratic field keeps their names in contention.
The broader issue for Democrats remains their ability to present a coherent message on critical issues such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. Post-debate polling indicated that Trump was viewed more favorably on these issues, leading to increased concern among Democrats about their chances in the upcoming election.
The debate underscored the urgent need for the Democratic Party to reassess its strategy and potentially its candidate. As Thomas Gift remarked, "The 2024 election is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, and the Democrats need to ensure they have the strongest possible candidate to face him."
