The past few weeks have brought unprecedented developments in U.S. presidential politics, culminating in President Joe Biden's announcement that he will not seek re-election in 2024. Biden's decision, coming just weeks after a lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump, has shifted the Democratic landscape and placed Vice President Kamala Harris at the forefront of the party's nomination process.
Biden's withdrawal has left Democrats scrambling to prepare for the upcoming national convention in Chicago, set to begin in less than a month. Despite the sudden vacancy, high-profile Democrats have quickly rallied behind Harris, making her the most likely candidate to face Trump in the general election.
Polling data provides insight into how Harris might fare against Trump compared to Biden. Historically, Harris has trailed behind Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump. However, recent surveys indicate that Harris's performance against Trump has improved significantly post-debate.
A comprehensive analysis of national and state-level polls, including those conducted before and after the debate, reveals that while Harris generally polled worse than Biden prior to the debate, she has since closed the gap. Post-debate polls show Harris performing almost on par with Biden, with some polls indicating that she may even outperform him in certain scenarios.
For instance, in a series of 24 pre-debate polls, Harris lagged behind Biden by an average of 3 points. In contrast, 25 post-debate polls reveal that the gap has narrowed, with Harris trailing Biden by only 1 point on average. This suggests that Harris has made gains against Trump, while Biden's performance has remained relatively stable.
State-level polling data, although limited, paints a more nuanced picture. In key battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Harris trails Trump by slightly larger margins compared to Biden. In Wisconsin, Harris is down by approximately 3 points, compared to Biden's 2-point deficit. In Pennsylvania, Harris lags by 5 points, whereas Biden trails by 4. Similarly, in Michigan, Harris is behind by 5 points, while Biden is down by 2.
Despite these challenges, Democrats remain hopeful that Harris can strengthen her position as she transitions to an active campaign against Trump. The public announcement of Biden's departure and Harris's candidacy could provide a much-needed boost to her campaign, potentially altering voter perceptions and improving her polling numbers.
Moreover, Harris's relative newness as a national candidate may work in her favor. Public opinion about her is less formed compared to Biden, providing an opportunity for her to win over voters who were previously undecided or less enthusiastic about Biden.
The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted in early July found that 70% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be "satisfied" with Harris as the nominee if Biden were to withdraw. Additionally, 29% of respondents named Harris as their preferred candidate in an open-ended question, indicating substantial support within the party.
Further, a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in Pennsylvania before the debate and Biden's withdrawal showed Harris trailing Trump by only 1 percentage point, suggesting she has the potential to be competitive in crucial swing states. In Virginia, Harris led Trump by 5 percentage points, a stronger showing compared to Biden's narrow lead in the same state.
While the polling data presents a mixed picture, Harris's recent upward trend provides a glimmer of hope for Democrats. Her ability to energize key demographic groups such as Black voters, younger voters, and women, who have shown stronger support for her compared to Biden, could be pivotal in a general election matchup against Trump.
