U.S. officials have detected signs that Iran is preparing an attack on Israel in response to the recent assassination of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The specifics of the planned retaliation remain unclear, but there are concerns that Iran might employ a mix of unconventional and conventional methods. This development comes amid heightened tensions and a backdrop of recent military engagements in the region.
One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that Iran's previous missile and drone barrage against Israel in April had limited effectiveness. This has led to speculation that Iran might integrate more unconventional tactics, such as assassinations, into its retaliatory strategy. Additionally, there is apprehension that Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon might join the attack. Hezbollah possesses a significant arsenal capable of causing substantial damage in Israel and had limited involvement in the April offensive.
Further complicating the situation, a rocket attack by an Iranian-linked militant group in Iraq wounded seven U.S. troops on Monday. This attack could be a precursor to a broader assault on Israel and other Western targets, according to one official.
In response to these threats, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered an increase in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. This includes deploying Navy cruisers, destroyers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, and F-22 warplanes to the region. These forces will bolster the existing U.S. military presence, including the USS Wasp and a Marine expeditionary unit in the eastern Mediterranean. The Pentagon aims to prevent the conflict from escalating and to protect Israel from potential Iranian aggression.
Despite the buildup, U.S. officials maintain that an attack does not appear imminent. However, the uncertainty surrounding Iran's plans keeps Israel and its allies on high alert. This strategic ambiguity may be intentional, aimed at keeping adversaries on edge.
The assassination of Haniyeh and the killing of leading Hezbollah figure Fuad Shukr in Beirut have further escalated tensions. Israel is widely believed to have carried out these targeted killings, which have brought the region to a boiling point. Diplomats are working feverishly to prevent a full-scale conflict, but the situation remains precarious.
Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, stated that regional stability could only be achieved by "punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime [Israel]." This rhetoric underscores Iran's resolve to respond but leaves open the question of the nature and scale of the response.
The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, a significant blow to Iran's prestige, has not gone unanswered. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged the likelihood of an Iranian response, stating, "We are prepared for any scenario, and will stand united and determined against any threat. Israel will exact a very heavy price for aggression against us from any arena."
Analysts suggest that Iran's response, while imminent, is likely to be measured. Reza Akbari, Middle East and North Africa program manager at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, commented, "I don't believe escalation is on the mind of Iranian decision-makers. The challenge is to retaliate without triggering an escalatory cycle."
Iran's political landscape, split between hardliners and reformists, adds to the complexity of the decision-making process. President Masoud Pezeshkian, a centrist, has only been in office for a short time and has appointed experienced negotiators to his cabinet. This suggests a potential preference for a controlled response.
Tehran's ongoing diplomatic engagements indicate a desire to avoid a broader conflict. Ori Goldberg, a political analyst based in Tel Aviv, noted, "Iran is talking to everyone in the Middle East but Israel and quite a few countries from outside the region. This suggests a controlled and restrained response."
Despite Israel's strong stance, internal political challenges and declining international support complicate Netanyahu's position. Analysts believe that Netanyahu, who has long advocated for a confrontational approach with Iran, may see this as an opportunity.
