Iran is reportedly preparing to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that could significantly escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to two European intelligence sources, dozens of Russian military personnel are currently in Iran receiving training on the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, with delivery expected imminently.
The intelligence, disclosed to Reuters, indicates that Russian Defense Ministry representatives signed a contract in Tehran on December 13 with Iranian officials for the acquisition of the Fath-360 missile system. This system, developed by Iran's state-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO), is capable of launching missiles with a range of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) and carrying a warhead weighing 150 kilograms.
The Fath-360 is not the only missile system reportedly included in the deal. The contract also covers the Ababil missile system, another advanced piece of weaponry from Iran's growing arsenal. While Moscow has a substantial stockpile of its own ballistic missiles, the addition of the Fath-360s would allow Russia to reallocate its resources, reserving its domestically produced missiles for longer-range targets and using the Iranian systems for closer engagements.
A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson expressed deep concern over the potential transfer, stating that the United States, along with its NATO allies and G7 partners, is prepared to deliver a "swift and severe response" should Iran move forward with these transfers. The spokesperson emphasized that such an action "would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."
This development comes amid growing evidence of a deepening military partnership between Russia and Iran, a relationship that has been scrutinized since the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The partnership has previously been centered around the supply of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), specifically the Shahed series drones, which Iran has provided to Russia in large numbers. These drones have been used extensively by Russian forces in Ukraine, but they are far less sophisticated than ballistic missiles and easier to counter with existing Ukrainian air defense systems.
The Iranian government has officially denied any involvement in supplying weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. In a statement, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations claimed that the country refrains from transferring any weapons that could be used in the conflict "from an ethical standpoint." However, this assertion is contradicted by multiple intelligence reports suggesting otherwise.
Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), highlighted the potential impact of the Fath-360 missiles on Ukraine's already overstretched missile defense systems. "Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defense systems," Bronk said. He noted that these missiles could only be reliably intercepted by the most advanced systems in Ukraine's arsenal, such as the U.S.-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems.
The timing of the delivery remains unclear, but intelligence sources suggest it will happen soon. The potential for Iranian ballistic missiles to be deployed on Ukrainian soil represents a significant escalation in the conflict, drawing increased international scrutiny and likely leading to further sanctions or retaliatory measures against both Russia and Iran.
The geopolitical implications of this development are profound. Iran's support for Russia could strain its relations with other global powers, particularly those in the West, who have already imposed heavy sanctions on Tehran for its ballistic missile program and its involvement in regional conflicts. Moreover, the ongoing collaboration between Russia and Iran could further isolate the two nations on the global stage, pushing them closer together in their defiance of international norms.
