Ohio Senator JD Vance has openly dismissed recent polling data that shows Vice President Kamala Harris gaining an edge over former President Donald Trump, both nationally and in key battleground states. Speaking on "Fox News Sunday," Vance argued that such polls are "wildly inaccurate," drawing parallels to the 2016 and 2020 elections where polls similarly underestimated Republican support.
"The polls tend to radically overstate Democrats, and we certainly saw that during the summer of 2020 and the summer of 2016," Vance remarked during the interview. He went on to claim that these polls were ultimately proven wrong on Election Day, suggesting that the current data showing Harris leading is no different.
Vance's comments came in response to a recent New York Times poll, which indicates that Harris has overtaken Trump in several critical states, including Arizona and North Carolina. The poll also shows that she has significantly narrowed Trump's lead in Georgia and Nevada. Despite this, Vance was quick to downplay the results, stating, "What we've actually seen from our own internal data is that Kamala Harris has already leveled off."
Vance further criticized the media's role in promoting these poll results, alleging that "the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters." He described Harris's recent surge as a "sugar high," arguing that her support is not as solid as the numbers suggest.
The discussion on "Fox News Sunday" highlighted the ongoing tension between the Trump campaign and the polling industry. Vance pointed to past inaccuracies, particularly with the ABC News/Washington Post polls from 2020, which had shown Biden leading Trump by double digits before Election Day. "ABC/Washington Post was a wildly inaccurate pollster in the summer of 2020," Vance asserted, expressing confidence that the Trump campaign would be "in the right place come November."
Despite Vance's dismissal, the polling data does present a challenge for the Trump campaign. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Harris took the national lead over Trump for the first time in early August and has since expanded that lead to 1.4 points. In battleground states, the data shows Harris holding slim leads in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump maintains narrow advantages in Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. Pennsylvania, another key state, is currently shown as a tie.
Vance's remarks underscore the broader skepticism within the Trump campaign regarding polling accuracy. A memo from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio echoed Vance's sentiments, arguing that current polls showing Harris ahead are presenting a "phony lead" and are not reflective of the actual voter sentiment on the ground.
The reliability of polls has been a contentious issue in recent election cycles, with notable discrepancies between pre-election polling and actual outcomes. In 2016, most polls failed to predict Trump's victory, particularly in the Rust Belt states that secured his path to the White House. Similarly, in 2020, while polls correctly predicted Biden's victory, they significantly underestimated Trump's support in several key states, leading to a narrower-than-expected margin of victory for Biden.
Given this history, the Trump campaign appears to be focusing less on public polls and more on internal data and direct voter engagement. "We can't worry about polls; we have to run through the finish line," Vance emphasized, calling on supporters to stay motivated and turn out to vote.
As the race continues to heat up, the accuracy of polling data will likely remain a hotly debated topic. Vance's comments reflect a broader strategy within the Trump campaign to question the validity of polls that do not favor their candidate, while also rallying their base against what they perceive as media bias.
