Vice President Kamala Harris has secured a 7-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a recent national poll, marking a significant shift as the 2024 presidential election approaches. The survey, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, indicates that Harris holds 50 percent support compared to Trump's 43 percent, with 7 percent of respondents stating they plan to vote for another candidate.
The poll underscores Harris's growing momentum following her ascension as the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race. Harris's lead is further bolstered by her strong performance among key demographics, particularly independents and self-identified liberals. Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump by a narrower margin, 38 percent to 33 percent, yet still maintains an edge. The vice president enjoys overwhelming support among liberals, securing 87 percent of their votes compared to Trump's 10 percent, and even more dominantly among progressives, with 93 percent favoring her over Trump's 5 percent.
Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and the executive director of the poll, highlighted the role of race and gender in influencing voter preferences. "Trump has built his political career around a very specific performance of whiteness and masculinity," Cassino noted in the poll's release. "In the past, that's been seen as a strength, but it's no longer clear that it's working."
The survey also revealed that Trump's strongest base remains among conservatives and MAGA supporters, with 76 percent and 95 percent support, respectively. However, the poll suggests that these traditional bases might not be enough to counterbalance Harris's growing appeal across a broader voter spectrum. Cassino added that when voters are prompted to consider race or gender, Harris's lead expands significantly, indicating a shift in voter attitudes that may be pivotal in the upcoming election.
The poll's findings are part of a broader trend showing Harris gaining ground not only nationally but also in crucial battleground states. According to polling data aggregated by Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin website, Harris is leading Trump in key states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Harris has 47.7 percent support compared to Trump's 46 percent, while in Wisconsin, she leads with 48.9 percent to Trump's 45.5 percent. These margins suggest that Harris could secure the presidency if these trends hold through November.
However, the race remains tight in other critical states. In Georgia, Trump currently leads with 47.5 percent to Harris's 46.8 percent, and in North Carolina, the two candidates are virtually neck-and-neck, with Harris slightly ahead at 46.8 percent to Trump's 46.5 percent. Nevada also remains competitive, with Harris leading by a slim margin of 46.2 percent to Trump's 45 percent.
Despite Harris's gains, Trump has dismissed the notion that his campaign is faltering. In a recent interview with Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum, Trump downplayed Harris's rise in the polls, asserting, "No, she's not having success. I'm having success. I'm doing great with the Hispanic voters. I'm doing great with Black men. I'm doing great with women, because women want safety."
The political landscape continues to evolve rapidly, with both campaigns vying to secure their bases and sway undecided voters. The Fairleigh Dickinson poll, which surveyed 801 registered voters between August 17 and 20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, providing a snapshot of the electorate's current leanings as the election draws closer.
As the Harris campaign capitalizes on its recent gains, it remains to be seen whether these leads will hold in the volatile months ahead. Political strategists have cautioned that while Harris's lead is promising, the race is far from over, and both candidates will need to navigate a complex and unpredictable political environment as they head into the final stretch of the campaign.
