Russia has initiated a significant counteroffensive in the Kursk border region, aiming to reclaim territory lost to Ukrainian forces during a surprise invasion last month. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that it had recaptured 10 settlements in the area as part of what it described as "offensive operations." This marks the most substantial effort by Russia to retake land under Ukrainian control since the conflict began.
The developments come after more than a month of relative silence from Moscow, which had initially appeared to prioritize its military efforts in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces had captured approximately 500 square miles of Russian territory in Kursk after a swift and unexpected advance on August 6. The incursion, which took Russian forces by surprise, was the first invasion of Russian soil since World War II.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the Russian counteroffensive, stating that "everything is going in accordance with our Ukrainian plan." However, the full scale and intent of the Russian counterattack remain unclear. Analysts suggest that this could either be a preliminary operation leading to a larger offensive or a strategic move to regain lost ground.
Christopher Tuck, a conflict and security expert at King's College London, commented on the situation: "It's really too early to make any informed comment on the nature, scale, or purpose of the attacks. Obviously, Russia wants to regain the territory that it has lost. But whether this offensive is the first step in a more concerted attempt to achieve this now simply isn't clear at the moment."
Despite the ongoing counterattacks, Ukrainian forces have continued their operations in the region, with reports of attempts to breach other parts of the Kursk border. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that Ukrainian troops were still mounting counterattacks and launching assaults in various areas within the region.
The strategic implications of the Russian counteroffensive are significant. If successful, it could alter the narrative of Ukraine's recent successes in the region and potentially weaken Kyiv's position in any future peace negotiations. Oleksandr Musiienko, a military analyst based in Kyiv, noted that the Russian counterattack was anticipated by Ukrainian forces, who had taken steps to secure their positions and prepare for a defensive stance.
"The logic is that if they are counterattacking, their losses are growing. And if their losses are growing, they need to be constantly replaced. But who with? Those who will not go to Pokrovsk," Musiienko explained, referring to the ongoing Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Russia's sudden focus on Kursk comes as Ukrainian forces face increasing pressure in other parts of the country, particularly in the strategically vital city of Pokrovsk. The shift in Russian strategy, moving resources from the eastern front to Kursk, could relieve some of the pressure on Ukrainian defenders in the east, albeit temporarily.
NBC News was able to geolocate video footage showing a column of Russian military vehicles moving toward the settlement of Snagost in Kursk. The Russian Defense Ministry later confirmed that Snagost was among the 10 settlements it had recaptured.
The counteroffensive has also sparked significant interest and commentary among Russian military bloggers, who have been closely following the developments. The Rybar channel, known for its connections to Russia's military, reported on Wednesday that Russian forces were making progress in Kursk, displacing Ukrainian troops from occupied positions.
In a show of confidence, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Ukrainian forces were "now being steadily squeezed out from Kursk" and would be "squeezed out completely, there can be no doubt about it."
However, the ultimate success of the Russian counteroffensive remains uncertain. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, noted that while Russian forces had made some gains, the situation was fluid, and it was unclear whether these initial successes would lead to a broader and more sustained offensive.
