Vice President Kamala Harris has strengthened her position in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, as new polling data and betting odds show her pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump. Harris' lead has increased marginally in key battleground states following her debate performance, and she now holds a narrow advantage over Trump in several major polls. This surge comes as Trump has decided not to participate in any additional debates, a move that may further shape the race in the weeks leading up to the election.
In the aftermath of the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump, the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll indicated that Harris has a slim but significant lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state. The poll showed Harris leading Trump by 49% to 46%, reflecting a broader trend in other battleground states. Additionally, Harris' performance in the debate seems to have energized her supporters and solidified her standing in these key regions.
Betting odds have also shifted in Harris' favor, with U.K. bookmaker Bet365 now placing her at -125, while Trump stands at even money. Other betting platforms, including Bovada and BetOnline, have followed suit, with Harris listed at -130 and Trump at +110. While U.S. bookmakers cannot legally offer bets on political outcomes, these offshore betting markets provide insight into how the race is being perceived globally. Harris' momentum in these betting markets is being mirrored by her steady polling advantage, particularly in battleground states.
According to a recent CBS News and YouGov poll, Harris now holds a slight edge over Trump in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll found that Harris has 51% support compared to Trump's 49%, a narrow lead but an improvement from earlier in the campaign. In Georgia and North Carolina, which had previously leaned toward Trump, polling averages now classify these states as toss-ups, indicating that Harris' campaign efforts in these regions may be paying off.
Harris has also gained ground nationally, with the CBS/YouGov survey showing her leading Trump by four points-52% to 48%. This marks an improvement from earlier polls where the race was even closer. Notably, Harris has made strides among voters who prioritize the economy, an area where Trump had previously held a commanding lead. In August, Trump was leading Harris by 13 points among voters who said the economy was their top issue. However, Harris has now closed that gap to just six points, suggesting that voters are increasingly confident in her economic policies as the election draws nearer.
"Harris' debate performance appears to have been a turning point for her campaign, particularly among undecided voters who had supported Joe Biden in the past," noted CBS News. The poll indicated that Harris' strong showing during the debate helped to consolidate her support among voters who were uncertain about her candidacy, particularly those concerned about economic issues.
Harris' likability compared to Trump may also be a factor contributing to her rising support. The CBS/YouGov poll revealed that Harris is viewed more favorably on a personal level than Trump, though voters remain divided on policy issues. This contrast in personal favorability could be critical in the final weeks of the campaign, as undecided voters may weigh both candidates' personalities alongside their policy platforms.
Meanwhile, Trump's performance in the debate was criticized for making false claims about Haitian migrants, a narrative that, while debunked, resonated with his core supporters. Two-thirds of Trump voters said they approved of the former president's controversial remarks, according to the CBS poll. While Trump's base remains solid, his failure to expand beyond this core group of voters could be a significant hurdle as the election approaches.
The betting odds highlight a unique aspect of this year's presidential race. Harris' lead in the betting markets is notable for how close it remains compared to previous elections. At 50 days out from the election, Harris' odds stand at -110 to Trump's +116, a much narrower margin than what previous Democratic nominees have enjoyed at similar points in their campaigns. For instance, in 2020, Biden had stronger odds at -116, while Trump trailed at +132. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a more commanding lead over Trump with odds of -323 to +370, although Trump ultimately won that race despite being the underdog.
With less than two months remaining until Election Day, Harris' slight but consistent edge over Trump in both polls and betting markets could prove decisive. However, as past elections have shown, betting markets and polling data are not always predictive of final outcomes, particularly in a race as close and volatile as this one.
