President-elect Donald Trump's team is developing a sweeping strategy to implement large-scale deportations, focusing heavily on Latin America to facilitate the return of undocumented immigrants. Sources familiar with the transition plan indicate that the approach is more prepared and forceful than during Trump's first term, incorporating diplomatic leverage and economic pressure to ensure regional compliance.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to launch the "largest deportation program in American history." Speaking at a rally in Madison Square Garden, he declared, "On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out. We will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country."
The Trump team's proposed strategy includes reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy, which requires asylum seekers to wait in Mexico during U.S. immigration proceedings. Discussions are also underway to renegotiate Asylum Cooperative Agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, agreements that were central to Trump's immigration policy in his first term. El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has already signaled support for Trump, while Guatemala and Honduras may pose greater challenges.
The plan also calls for Mexico and Panama to play pivotal roles in addressing migration routes, including the treacherous Darien Gap. A source close to the discussions noted, "Every tool is in our arsenal. Once the president re-establishes credibility and consequences, it's not something taken lightly."
The impact of mass deportations is expected to be particularly severe in Florida, home to approximately 1.1 million undocumented immigrants-about 5% of the state's population. Immigration experts warn of widespread disruptions to communities, families, and industries like agriculture, construction, and tourism, which heavily rely on immigrant labor. Juan Carlos Gomez, an immigration expert at Florida International University, observed, "Add these programs up, and we have real issues here in Florida. What will be the consequences to the economy? But what are the other consequences to people and families? There are many that are very afraid right now."
The economic implications extend beyond costs, with undocumented workers in Florida contributing $1.8 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. Nationwide, undocumented immigrants paid nearly $100 billion in taxes, which exceeds the cost of government services they receive. The American Immigration Council estimates it would cost taxpayers $315 billion to deport the nation's estimated 13.3 million undocumented immigrants.
Latin American governments are reportedly bracing for the fallout of Trump's policies. A source familiar with regional discussions said, "They expect he's going to be fierce and destructive to the region. He's going to take advantage at every opportunity and leverage opportunities." Trump's team is also prepared to bring back sanctions on Venezuela if the country does not cooperate with deportation flights, a measure softened under the Biden administration in an effort to stabilize the region.
Beyond economic disruptions, the human cost of deportations could be devastating. A report by the American Immigration Council found that 4 million U.S.-citizen children live in mixed-status families, making them vulnerable to separation. Additionally, the report noted that 39% of undocumented immigrant households own homes, raising concerns about widespread displacement and housing instability.
Experts caution that Trump's deportation plans may face significant logistical and diplomatic challenges. Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, noted, "It's a dance. The U.S. holds a lot of cards, but not all of the cards."
While the Biden administration has achieved some breakthroughs, such as deportation agreements with China, the evolving demographics of migrants, including a significant influx of Venezuelans fleeing dire conditions, complicate repatriation efforts. Despite these challenges, Trump's team appears committed to enacting the aggressive policies that defined his first term.
