Russian forces have achieved their most significant territorial gains in Ukraine since the early months of the 2022 invasion, capturing nearly 235 square kilometers in the past week, according to analysts and independent reports. These advances signal a shift along a front line that had remained largely static for two years, intensifying concerns over Ukraine's ability to hold critical positions in the eastern Donetsk region.
The independent monitoring group DeepState reported that Russian forces have captured approximately 600 square kilometers in November, surpassing gains made throughout October. Analysts attribute these advances to a concentrated offensive in Donetsk, with Russian troops encircling key towns and threatening Ukraine's supply lines.
The Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Russian forces are closing in on Velyka Novosilka, a crucial logistics hub for Ukrainian forces. The town is a vital supply route to the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and its loss would be "significant and potentially detrimental" to Kyiv's defensive capabilities in the region. Geolocated footage from Sunday showed Russian troops advancing on the outskirts of the town, while reports indicate the capture of nearby settlements, including Zoria and Sontsivka.
Pro-Russian military bloggers have highlighted gains northeast and southeast of Velyka Novosilka, where units from Russia's 5th Tank Brigade and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade are engaged in heavy fighting. ISW analysts, however, caution that while these advances may be operationally significant, they depend on Moscow's ability to exploit recent tactical successes-a capability that has been inconsistent throughout the conflict.
Donetsk remains the focal point of Russia's offensive, with forces pushing toward Kurakhove and targeting Ukrainian defenses in the town. Russian troops have increasingly relied on encirclement tactics, followed by heavy artillery and glide bomb strikes, according to Russian war bloggers. If successful, these maneuvers could enable Moscow to secure its rear positions while advancing westward toward Zaporizhzhia.
"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo reported, citing data from DeepState. These recent territorial gains, described as the largest of 2024, reflect an acceleration of Moscow's efforts to consolidate control in Donetsk.
Ukrainian officials acknowledge the deteriorating situation in the east. The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces reported that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove front line as of Monday evening. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has attributed some setbacks to delays in receiving Western military aid, including U.S. approval for advanced weaponry.
"In order to stop the Russian army, new reserves, kitted out with the equipment we have been waiting for so long, will now arrive," Zelensky said earlier this month, signaling the deployment of additional brigades equipped with Western-supplied systems.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Russian forces are advancing more effectively and will achieve their objectives in Ukraine, though he has not provided detailed plans. Analysts believe Moscow's goals include the full occupation of the Donbas, which spans the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as securing Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. Russia currently controls 18% of Ukraine, including Crimea and more than 80% of the Donbas.
Ukraine's control of the Kursk region, which it seized in August, has also come under pressure. A source within Ukraine's General Staff confirmed that Kyiv now holds around 800 of the 1,376 square kilometers it initially controlled in Kursk. "We will hold it for as long as is militarily appropriate," the source said.
The war's human toll continues to mount, with neither side releasing accurate casualty figures. Western intelligence estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of soldiers have been killed or injured, while vast areas of eastern and southern Ukraine have been devastated. Meanwhile, delays in Western military assistance have hampered Ukraine's efforts to mobilize effectively against the renewed Russian offensive.
