Russia appears to be in the process of withdrawing military equipment from its key air base in Syria following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces, according to satellite images released by Maxar Technologies. The images, taken on Friday, show significant activity at the Hmeimim airbase in Syria's coastal Latakia province, including preparations for the transportation of heavy military equipment.
The satellite photos reveal two Antonov AN-124 cargo planes, among the world's largest, parked on the runway with their nose cones open, ready to load equipment. Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter is being dismantled, and elements of the advanced S-400 air defense system are being prepared for transport. Maxar noted that Russia's naval base at Tartus, another strategic foothold in Syria, appeared unchanged since earlier imagery, with two frigates observed offshore.
While Russia's defense ministry has not commented on the reports, the imagery and accounts from the ground suggest a carefully orchestrated withdrawal. Britain's Channel 4 reported seeing a convoy of over 150 Russian military vehicles moving along a Syrian road in an orderly fashion, indicating a potential agreement between Russia and the insurgents to ensure a safe and systematic exit.
The fall of Assad's regime last weekend marked a dramatic turning point for Moscow's longstanding involvement in Syria. Russia has been a key ally to Damascus since the Cold War, providing military and political support to the Assad family for decades. Its 2015 military intervention is credited with saving Assad's government from collapse during the civil war. However, with Assad now in exile in Moscow, the Kremlin's focus has shifted to securing its military and diplomatic assets in the region.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Wednesday that Russia was in contact with Syria's new leadership to ensure the safety of its military installations and diplomatic missions. "We are in contact with those who control the situation in Syria," Peskov said, adding that discussions were ongoing regarding the future of Russian infrastructure in the country.
Russia's military presence in Syria has long been seen as critical to its influence in the Middle East and Africa. The Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base represent Moscow's only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union, providing logistical support and a strategic platform for projecting power across the region.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, noted on social media that the withdrawal appears focused on consolidating Russian forces at Hmeimim and Tartus. "While tactical aviation is still there, [Russia] appears to be consolidating at Khmeimim and Tartus. In short, a withdrawal is under way," Kofman wrote, though he cautioned that it remains unclear whether this marks a complete exit from Syria.
Russia's intervention in Syria in 2015 was a turning point in the civil war, allowing Assad's forces to regain significant territory. However, with Moscow now heavily engaged in its military campaign in Ukraine, analysts suggest that Russia may lack the resources to intervene in Syria with the same intensity as before. "The special military operation [in Ukraine] is the absolute priority for our country," Peskov said on Thursday, using Moscow's preferred term for the conflict.
Despite these developments, the Kremlin has emphasized that its military and diplomatic priorities in Syria remain intact. On Sunday, Russia's Foreign Ministry confirmed that it had secured security guarantees from the new leadership in Syria to protect its bases and personnel. Observers note that this diplomatic maneuvering underscores Moscow's intent to maintain a presence in the region even as it adapts to the new geopolitical reality on the ground.
