South Korea's fertility rate has increased for the first time in nearly a decade, offering a rare moment of optimism amid the country's ongoing demographic crisis. The number of births in 2024 rose to 238,300, marking a 3.6% increase from the previous year, according to preliminary data from Statistics Korea. It is the first time since 2015 that the country has recorded a rise in births, reversing a continuous downward trend.
The crude birth rate, which measures the number of births per 1,000 people, climbed to 4.7. Meanwhile, the total fertility rate, which estimates the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, increased slightly from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024. Although still the lowest among developed nations, the modest increase is seen as a potential indicator of shifting societal trends.
Statistics Korea attributed the rise in births primarily to an increase in marriages. A total of 222,422 couples tied the knot in 2024, a 14.9% surge from the previous year. "The population has seen a significant increase in the number of people in their early 30s," said Park Hyun-jeong, an official from Statistics Korea. "Additionally, many marriages that were delayed due to Covid-19 have now taken place, and this upward trend continues."
South Korea's demographic challenge is among the most severe in the world. Despite government efforts to incentivize childbirth, including financial subsidies and expanded childcare support, the fertility rate remains well below the replacement level of 2.1. At current trends, the population of 51 million is projected to shrink to 26.8 million by 2100, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
The government has declared the country's declining birth rate a national emergency. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol had pledged to create a dedicated ministry to address the crisis before his impeachment. Despite repeated policy interventions, including cash incentives and extended parental leave, South Korea remains the only member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) with a fertility rate below one.
The decline in births has already had tangible effects. The education ministry announced that 49 schools across the country will close in 2025 due to a shortage of students, an increase from 33 closures in 2024. Rural areas are particularly affected, with younger generations migrating to urban centers, exacerbating the population decline in less developed regions.
South Korea officially became a "super-aged" society in 2024, with individuals aged 65 and older now making up 20% of the total population. The country's life expectancy, one of the highest globally, stands at 86.7 years for women and 80.7 years for men. Policymakers have warned that a shrinking workforce and an aging population could strain the country's pension and healthcare systems.
Consumer trends also reflect South Korea's demographic shift. Sales of pet strollers surpassed those of baby prams for the first time in 2023, according to data from e-commerce platform Gmarket. Pet strollers accounted for 57% of sales, compared to 43% for baby prams, a reversal from just two years earlier.
While the fertility rate increase provides a glimmer of hope, experts caution that it is too early to determine whether this marks a lasting shift. "There was a change in social value, with more positive views about marriage and childbirth," said Park. However, high child-rearing costs, skyrocketing housing prices, and intense academic and professional competition continue to deter many from having larger families.
Japan, South Korea's closest economic competitor, faces similar demographic concerns. With the world's second-oldest population after Monaco, Japan has struggled to reverse its own declining birth rate. Strict immigration policies in both countries have contributed to labor shortages, raising concerns about future economic growth.
