Egg prices in the U.S. are expected to climb by 41.1% in 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported Tuesday, marking a significant increase from its previous estimate of 20%. The sharp rise is largely attributed to the ongoing bird flu outbreak, which has severely impacted commercial egg production.
Retail egg prices surged 13.8% in January following an 8.4% rise in December, USDA data showed. Compared to the same period last year, egg prices in January were 53% higher, with the national average reaching $4.95 per dozen, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The USDA report highlighted the extent of the bird flu outbreak's impact, estimating that 18.8 million commercial egg-laying hens were affected in January alone. "Offerings are very light to light with little chance for improvement in the near-term as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to impact productive flocks," the agency stated in a separate report on February 14.
Since the outbreak began in 2022, the bird flu has continued to disrupt the supply chain, leading to erratic price movements. "Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022," the USDA said in its latest forecast. "HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has identified 70 human cases of bird flu worldwide, with most being mild. The only reported fatality occurred in an individual over 65 years old who had pre-existing medical conditions and was exposed to a non-commercial backyard flock and wild birds.
While egg prices are projected to see the most significant increase, other food categories are also expected to rise in cost. The USDA forecasted a 3.4% increase in overall food prices for 2025. Beef and veal prices are set to rise by 3.2%, pork by 1.2%, fresh fruit by 2.4%, sugar and sweets by 6.4%, and nonalcoholic beverages by 4.4%. Poultry prices, however, are expected to remain stable.
