U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Ukrainian troops operating in Russia's Kursk region are under pressure but not encircled by Russian forces, contradicting recent statements from both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to multiple U.S. and European officials familiar with their governments' intelligence assessments.
The intelligence findings, shared with the White House over the past week, were delivered by agencies including the CIA, two sources confirmed. Despite receiving those assessments, President Trump has continued to assert that Ukrainian forces are surrounded and facing imminent defeat.
Trump first made the claim in a March 14 post on his Truth Social platform, stating, "THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION." He added that he had appealed to Putin to spare the soldiers' lives, calling the situation "a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II."
Similar assertions were echoed by President Putin during a public appearance on March 13, when he declared that Ukrainian troops in Kursk had been cut off and faced two options: "surrender or die."
However, U.S. and European officials told Reuters that intelligence contradicts those claims. While Ukrainian forces have lost significant ground in Kursk and face heavy Russian assaults, they are not entirely surrounded. Open-source intelligence and battlefield analysis confirm these findings.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based conflict monitor, stated on March 14, it had "observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine."
Ukraine's leadership has also dismissed reports of encirclement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy publicly denied Putin's claim, while acknowledging that Kyiv's forces are in a difficult position in Kursk. "Reports about the enemy's alleged 'encirclement' of Ukrainian units in the Kursk region are not true and are created by the Russians for political goals and pressure on Ukraine and partners," Ukraine's General Staff said in a statement following Trump's remarks.
Since August, Ukrainian forces have lost most of the territory seized in their surprise incursion into Kursk. Open-source analysis indicates Kyiv's troops now control between 20 to 30 square miles, down from roughly 500 square miles at the peak of their advance.
Trump repeated the encirclement narrative during a speech at Washington's Kennedy Center and again in a Fox News interview earlier this week. In a call with Putin on Tuesday, Trump reportedly asked for the protection of Ukrainian soldiers, prompting Putin to promise a temporary halt to attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The Russian leader offered a 30-day pause in strikes, though he stopped short of agreeing to Trump's broader call for a full ceasefire-terms Ukraine's Zelenskiy has signaled willingness to consider.
The White House, CIA, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the intelligence findings. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz issued a joint statement referencing Trump's call with Zelenskiy, reaffirming Washington's commitment to continued intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
