Oil prices climbed Monday after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by a smaller amount than traders anticipated, easing fears of oversupply even as demand concerns linger.
Brent crude futures settled 94 cents higher, or 1.46%, at $65.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 81 cents, or 1.33%, to $61.69. The gains followed Sunday's announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, that they would increase output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November - matching October's figure.
"The market feels that the actual amount of oil that is going to hit the market is far less than what they announced, given that some of the OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The modest hike came after internal disagreements between key members. Sources told Reuters that Russia favored maintaining the 137,000 bpd increment to stabilize prices, while Saudi Arabia initially pushed for up to four times that figure to recapture lost market share. Analysts said the decision signals a balancing act between protecting prices and retaining global influence amid a softening demand outlook.
Market sentiment was further supported by expectations of tighter supply from ongoing disruptions. The Kirishi refinery in Russia, one of the country's largest, halted operations following a drone attack and fire on October 4, with recovery expected to take about a month, according to two industry sources.
At the same time, rising Venezuelan exports and the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey have added barrels to the market, alongside unsold Middle Eastern cargoes for November loading, said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Still, refinery maintenance across the Middle East is expected to offset some of that surplus and help support prices.
