The United States is heading into Thanksgiving with its smallest commercial turkey supply since 1985, a drop that has pushed wholesale prices up roughly 40% and strained producers still grappling with avian flu outbreaks and elevated feed costs. The American Farm Bureau reported that commercial farms raised 194.5 million turkeys in 2025, down 3% from last year, marking the lowest production in four decades.
Fresh infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza continue to hit major producing states such as Minnesota and Iowa. Axios noted that outbreaks this month alone affected more than 514,000 birds, compounding the losses that began in 2022. As farmers cull infected birds to contain spread, flock sizes have shrunk further, leaving producers wary of long-term stability amid labour shortages and operational disruptions.
The supply squeeze has driven wholesale turkey prices sharply higher. USDA data shows that frozen turkeys now average £1 ($1.32) per pound, compared with £0.71 ($0.94) a year ago. WebProNews identified the increase as roughly 40 per cent, one of the steepest pre-Thanksgiving jumps in recent years. Some grocers are running promotional discounts-selling frozen Butterball turkeys for below £0.71 per pound-but farmers argue those prices mask the true economics of production.
Premium producers are reporting even steeper price points. Retail prices at Diestel Family Turkey Ranch have reached £7 ($9.25) per pound, according to the New York Post. Heidi Diestel told the outlet that supermarkets routinely use discounted turkeys as a loss-leader to "attract customers during the holiday season," even when underlying production costs continue to rise.
Industry leaders warn that the supply strain extends across the entire market. Major processors like Butterball and Cargill have intentionally reduced output to limit disease exposure. Meanwhile, ongoing federal shutdown disruptions, highlighted by the New York Times, have slowed rapid-response containment efforts that farms depend on when outbreaks occur.
Despite constrained supply, Thanksgiving demand remains consistent-about 46 million turkeys are consumed each year. CNET reports that mid-sized birds between 12 and 16 pounds may be the hardest to find due to tightened flock inventories, forcing consumers to shop earlier or consider alternatives.
Producers are exploring strategies for long-term resilience. Some are expanding vaccine trials, while others are investing in breeding programs aimed at enhancing disease resistance. Additional efforts include diversifying sourcing networks to reduce regional dependency when outbreaks occur.
