A new study from the Brookings Institution is challenging one of the central economic arguments behind the Trump administration's immigration enforcement strategy, concluding that intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations were associated with an estimated 668,000 lost jobs across 86 U.S. metropolitan areas since early 2025.
The report, released Monday by Brookings researchers Marcela Escobari, Ian Seyal and Paul Beach, examined the economic effects of large-scale ICE enforcement operations that expanded following President Donald Trump's return to office. The researchers argue that rather than creating opportunities for American workers, the enforcement surge coincided with broad employment declines affecting both immigrants and U.S.-born workers.
The findings arrive as immigration enforcement remains one of the administration's most visible domestic policy initiatives. White House officials have repeatedly argued that removing unauthorized workers from the labor market would create employment opportunities for American citizens and strengthen local economies.
Brookings reached a markedly different conclusion.
"This policy has been framed as a clear benefit for American workers, and for the American economy," Marcela Escobari, who leads Brookings' Global Economy and Development program, said. "But in reality, it's been the opposite. Our research shows that the ongoing ICE surge has triggered widespread job losses, not only for immigrants but for American-born workers. This damage is measurable, and it's widening."
The study analyzed labor-market trends across 86 metropolitan areas that experienced the highest levels of ICE activity during the first nine months of 2025. Researchers compared those cities with 255 metropolitan areas where immigration enforcement activity remained comparatively lower.
According to Brookings, ICE conducted approximately 52,000 more arrests in the high-enforcement metropolitan areas than historical averages would have suggested. Researchers then examined employment patterns in those locations and found overall job levels fell by an estimated 0.73% relative to projected trends.
The report's key findings include:
- Approximately 668,000 total jobs lost across 86 metropolitan areas.
- An estimated 51,000 to 297,000 of those jobs were held by U.S.-born workers.
- Each additional ICE arrest was associated with roughly 13 lost jobs.
- In areas where enforcement continued for at least six months, employment losses increased to 1.48%.
- Construction employment fell roughly 4% in those longer-duration enforcement zones.
Researchers argue that the economic impact extended well beyond individuals directly targeted by enforcement actions. The report identifies labor shortages, business disruptions and reduced consumer spending as primary drivers of the employment declines.
Many employers, particularly in industries dependent on immigrant labor, faced sudden staffing shortages that proved difficult to replace quickly. Businesses were forced to reduce operations, delay projects or scale back expansion plans while attempting to recruit and train new workers.
The study also suggests that fear generated by enforcement operations may have affected economic activity more broadly. According to Brookings, some immigrant communities reduced participation in local commerce, leading to lower customer traffic at restaurants, retail stores and entertainment venues.
Construction emerged as one of the sectors most affected by the enforcement campaigns. Researchers argue that labor shortages in construction can create cascading effects throughout local economies because projects often rely on interconnected networks of contractors, suppliers, inspectors and support personnel.
The impact was not limited to industries traditionally associated with immigrant labor. Brookings reported that employment in arts and entertainment sectors fell approximately 7% in certain high-enforcement cities after six months, a pattern researchers say points to broader economic disruptions rather than simple workforce replacement.
"It's tempting to think of immigration enforcement as a one-to-one replacement," Escobari said. "One person deported, one job freed up for an American worker. But that's not backed up by the data. The ICE surges didn't create jobs for Americans. Instead, they harmed local economies and destroyed jobs, for both immigrants and American-born workers."
The report also notes that its estimates may understate the total economic impact because the dataset ended in September 2025, while enforcement operations continued expanding into additional metropolitan areas through 2026. Minneapolis, for example, was not included in portions of the analysis because major enforcement activity there began later.
Brookings did not provide an updated nationwide estimate extending into 2026. The researchers said only that the cumulative effect is likely larger than the 668,000 jobs identified in their study.
