The life expectancy in 2040 is expected to change in every nation, but there will be a dramatic shift in the rankings. A study finds China will likely to trade places with the United States, while Spain will be taking the top spot in living the longest.
Spain, which is originally in the 4th place, has an average lifespan of approximately 85.8 years - dethroning Japan which is currently on the top spot with a lifespan of 83.7 years, and by 2040, the country is expected to be on the 2nd spot. Singapore will remain on the 3rd spot - increasing its life expectancy from 83.3 to 85.4 years. Hong Kong, on the other hand, wasn't ranked in the research although Japan's welfare ministry ranks it as the highest average life expectancy in the world.
Eight out of the 10 countries ranked for lifespan last 2016 will remain on the list by 2040, the study added. But there will be a gradual shift the world's two largest economies as they changed position compared to the 2016 rankings. As per the South China Morning Post, the US will drop from 43rd to 64th (79.8 years), while China will climb from 68th to 39th (81.9 years) by 2040. The US will only have 1.1 years of average life expectancy which is less compared to the average global rise of 4.4 years.
In other nations, the researchers found that there will be a dramatic decline in their lifespan - including North Korea (125th to 153rd), Mexico (69th to 87th), Australia (5th to 10th), Norway (12th to 20th), Canada (from 17th to 27th), and Taiwan (from 35th to 42nd). Meanwhile, if the war in Syria will end, the country will climb from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040.
"The future of the world's health is not preordained," said Kyle Foreman, the lead author of the study and head of data science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
But, he added that there are top five "drivers" that could determine the average lifespans two decades from now, which are the called "lifestyle" diseases: alcohol use, tobacco use, high blood sugar, overweight body, and high blood pressure. The air pollution was ranked on the sixth spot as researchers noted it could kill a million lives in China every year. For the top cause of premature death, non-communicable diseases and injuries were on the top spot as these two accounted for four of the top 10 causes of premature death back in 2016.
The study, which was published in The Lancet, also indicates poor countries this 2018 will remain to have a poor life expectancy. The countries which ranked the lowest are Swaziland, Somalia, Zimbabwe, the Central African Republic, and Lesotho. Christopher Murray, who is an IHME Director, said inequalities would remain to be large since many people in these countries will continue to have low incomes, poorly educated, and die prematurely.
