A very optimistic report on the state of the world's electric vehicle (EV) industry estimates a huge pent-up demand for these machines will push global sales in 2021 to a record three million EVs despite the destruction of personal income wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.
And leading the charge will be Tesla, Inc., the world's leading assembler of EVs. Tesla delivered 367,500 EVs in 2019, which was 50% more than in 2018. The 2019 total was also more than triple the number sold in 2017. From 2012 to 2019, Tesla's global sales came to over 891,000 EVs.
Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a research and consulting firm specializing in energy storage based in Boulder, Colorado, predicts the surge in EV sales as countries push programs encouraging people to buy EVs. It estimates a 36% jump in the global sales of EVs in 2021 to more than three million EVs for the first time ever. For 2020, EV production might range from 1.3 million to 1.5 million depending on market conditions currently under stress from the pandemic-induced slowdown in consumer spending.
"There's pent-up demand for electric vehicles," claims Sam Jaffe, managing director of Cairn Energy Research Advisors. "We will see a combination of factors make 2021 an inflection point for the sale of electric vehicles."
Europe and China will trigger the revival in demand for EVs, according to Jaffe. Cairn Energy predicts Europe will see the biggest growth in EV sales in 2021 because European Union governments are committed to lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This commitment is prompting a number of EU member states to reveal new incentives means to convince their citizens to buy EVs. French President Emmanuel Macron has declared he wants France to become Europe's top producer of clean energy vehicles.
China is already the world's largest EV market and built one million EVs in 2019. Demand in China this year is starting to accelerate with Tesla at the forefront of EV sales in this country.
Jaffe also claims the coming wave of EV production out of Europe that will ignite increased sales. He believes European automakers and Tesla are all adding capacity and this improvement will really have an impact starting in 2021. Tesla's newest assembly plant, Gigafactory Berlin, is scheduled to begin production of the Tesla Model Y electric compact crossover utility vehicle (CUV) by the middle of 2021.
EV sales in the U.S. are expected to increase in 2021 as more models leave assembly lines. The popular Tesla Model 3 -- the world's most popular EV in 2019 -- and the new Model Y are expected to top mass-market sales.
On the other hand, several new EV models including the Ford Mustang Mach-E and General Motor's Hummer EV SUV will focus more attention on the growing EV market. Several electric pickup trucks such as the all-electric Ford F-150, the Nikola Badger, the Bollinger B2, and the Rivian R1T are set to roll-out by the end of 2021.
