A win by Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential elections Nov. 3 will benefit Asia, the world and American policymaking in general, Nomura Securities says. Many polls have Biden winning the election.
Biden will be tough on China but not as unpredictable as incumbent President Donald Trump, Nomura Securities chief economist and head of global markets research for Asia ex-Japan Rob Subbaraman said.
Biden became the Democratic Party's presidential candidate Tuesday during its national convention held online as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. His running mate Sen. Kamala Harris accepted the nomination as the party's vice presidential candidate Wednesday. Biden and Harris are considered moderate Democrats willing to work with Republicans.
"For Asia specifically, if Biden wins, I think it will be actually positive," Subbaraman said.
"A Biden presidency...will result in more certain policymaking, foreign policymaking," according to Subbaraman. "That's been very lacking (under Trump) and I think there'll be more coalition building."
Subbaraman, however, expects Biden to "be tough" on China on issues other than just trade but not as unpredictable as Trump. Biden will be an overall "positive for the rest of the world," he said.
On the other hand, a Biden win might sour financial markets aware of his long-held belief that companies and the rich should pay more taxes, ending income inequality and promoting financial inclusiveness. "I think there will be a lot more focus on income redistribution in the U.S. - which will not be good for U.S. markets," Subbaraman said.
Biden will likely focus on imposing higher taxes and being tougher on technology companies, he said. This would be "more negative" for markets in the U.S.
Biden has spoken consistently of the need for economic justice. In July he said for there to be true justice in America "we need economic justice. The moment has come for our nation to deal with systemic racism, to deal with the growing economic inequality in our nation and to deal with the denial of the promise of this nation."
Biden has also spoken of pursuing more expansive changes than those made by former president Barack Obama in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Proposed Biden reforms include aid to middle-class families rather than corporations, strengthening workers' rights and removing barriers to expansion of the labor force.
