Rising nationalism and xenophobia in both China and the United States are increasing the risk of a war in Asia between the world's two strongest militaries, claims former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd.
Rudd, who was Australian prime minister from 2007 to 2010, said the risk is at its greatest today ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 3. He said the ongoing military buildup by both powers in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan and China, has increased the possibility of a "conflict through miscalculation and escalation."
"There's a real danger that with a collapsing diplomatic relationship and an erosion of all forms of political capital between the two countries in their bilateral relationship, if you have an incident of a ship colliding with another ship, an aircraft colliding with another aircraft ... then you have a crisis with an aircraft down or a ship as to what then happens," explained Rudd.
Most major national U.S. opinion polls predict president Donald Trump losing the presidency to Democratic Party challenger Joe Biden. Some American political pundits are warning that Trump might be desperate enough to stave off defeat by taking the U.S. to the brink of a war against China to unite the population behind him.
Rudd warned "nationalist impulses" in China and the U.S. might escalate a future crisis, "particularly in the several months leading up to the election when the politics of high nationalism are alive and well, both in Washington and Beijing."
What concerns Rudd more, however, is his belief that Chinese President Xi Jinping will attempt to take control of Taiwan within the next decade by military and non-military force. The Trump administration has been bolstering the capability of the Taiwan military to defeat any cross-strait amphibious invasion with sales of military hardware.
Rudd, however, asserts an amphibious invasion by the People's Liberation Army is an extreme scenario. He said China is more likely to drive Taiwan into submission by using cyberattacks and economic blockades.
Rudd said Xi believes the forces of history with him and the Chinese people.
"They are ultimately dialectical materialists," he said of Xi and the members of the Communist Party of China.
Rudd predicted that Biden, if elected president, will sell more military hardware to Taiwan. He's uncertain if the U.S. under a President Biden would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan.
