A warning from the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that "B.1.1.7," the more infectious mutation of COVID-19 first detected in the United Kingdom in September 2020, will become the predominant strain in the United States has worrisome implications for the rest of the world.
A CDC study said B.1.1.7 could become the predominant strain in the United States by March because the mutation is up to 70% more infectious than the original strain. There is as yet no evidence the variant is much deadlier, however.
So far, only 76 cases of the variant have been identified in 10 states, said CDC. Despite this low number, mathematical models project "rapid growth" in the coming months as the mutation begins to spread out of control.
The U.S. on December 29 reported the first case in Colorado was a man with no travel history, meaning the virus was already spreading in the community by that time. On January 6, CDEC said it had found at least 52 more confirmed cases in California, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, and New York.
"We are very concerned about this variant," said Dr. Michael Johansson, one of the study's authors and co-lead of the modeling team for the CDC's COVID-19 response.
Johansson said CDC is working to increase efforts to do more testing for this more infectious variant. The mutation's increased contagiousness means the U.S. must double down on mitigation strategies, including distancing, masking, and increasing low vaccination rates, said the CDC.
"The increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant warrants universal and increased compliance with mitigation strategies, including distancing and masking," the study authors wrote.
The higher potential for contagion also means "higher than anticipated vaccination coverage. CDC said the more transmissible a virus is, the greater the number of people who need to be immune to achieve herd or community immunity.
The warning about a surge in B.1.1.7 cases is particularly alarming for the U.S., which is being taken to the brink by a massive winter coronavirus surge. As of Friday, CDC reported 23.2 million confirmed cases in the U.S., as well as 1.66 million new cases over the last seven days alone.
The U.S. still leads the world in the total number of confirmed cases and deaths and has also suffered 387,000 deaths.
The warning also bodes ill for the rest of the world, which is struggling mightily against persistent new waves of infections caused by the original strain. Europe has been especially hard hit by the resurgence.
There have been some 27.2 million reported infections and 617,000 reported deaths caused by COVID-19 in Europe so far, according to the Reuters COVID-19 Global Tracker. Europe accounts for 29% of total confirmed global cases, amounting to 93.1 million, as of Friday. The total number of deaths in Europe stands at 617,000 out of the world total of 1.99 million.
The United Kingdom remains the worst-affected European country by B. 1.1.7 as it struggles to tame the rapid spread of this mutation, which is also being called the British virus.
As of Friday, the total confirmed cases in the UK came to 3.32 million compared to 3.12 million on Monday. The UK reported 51,221 new daily infections on average, the highest daily average since January 9. There have been 87,295 deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began.
The danger to the world manifests in the extremely rapid spread of B.1.1.7 around the world in December alone. The first cases in Canada, France, Lebanon, Spain, and Sweden were reported on December 26. Cases were then confirmed in Jordan, Norway, and Portugal the next day,
Finland and South Korea reported their first cases on December 28, while the mutation hit Chile, India, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates the following day.
The first case of B.1.1.7 in Malta and Taiwan are reported on December 30. China and Brazil reported their first cases on December 31.
