Purported US intelligence documents posted online indicate that the ongoing Ukraine conflict, which has resulted in an estimated 354,000 Russian and Ukrainian military casualties, may extend well past 2023. The authenticity of these documents has not been confirmed, and some countries, including Russia and Ukraine, have cast doubt on their veracity. US officials have also stated that some of the files may have been altered.
A February 23, 2023 assessment titled "Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023" suggests that Russia is unlikely to capture the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The report explains, "These tactics have diminished Russian forces and munition stockpiles to a level that, barring an unforeseen recovery, can exhaust Russian units and frustrate Moscow's war aims, resulting in a protracted war beyond 2023."
According to the US Defence Intelligence Agency's assessment, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total casualties, including 35,500-43,000 killed in action and 154,000-180,000 wounded. Meanwhile, Ukraine has experienced between 124,500 and 131,000 total casualties, including 15,500-17,500 killed in action and 109,000-113,500 wounded in action. These figures are approximately ten times larger than any public casualty figures published by Moscow or Kyiv.
The leaked documents indicate that both Russia and Ukraine have "moderate" combat sustainability, suggesting that they can continue fighting for some time. The documents also reveal that while Russia has overall numerical superiority in certain areas, Ukraine has more tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) in theater than Russia.
The US Defence Intelligence Agency estimates that Russia has lost 2,048 tanks and 3,900 APCs, while Ukraine has lost 468 tanks and 1,020 APCs. In theater, Ukraine has 802 tanks and 3,498 APCs fielded, compared to Russia's 419 tanks and 2,928 APCs.
The documents also highlight Washington's concerns about potential Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia, including Moscow, due to the potential impact on China's stance. The documents state, "China would respond more strongly and most likely increase the scale and scope of material it is willing to provide Russia if Ukrainian strikes hit a location of high strategic value or appeared to target senior Russian leaders."
Over 50 documents labeled "Secret" and "Top Secret" have been reviewed by Reuters. These documents, which first appeared on social media sites in March, allegedly reveal details about Ukrainian military vulnerabilities and information about allies, including Israel, South Korea, and Turkey.
