Research published in Nature Medicine on Monday, July 10th, reveals that nearly 63,000 people in Europe died from extreme heat last year. However, this year could be even more severe, given the extreme heat events occurring worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced last week that conditions for El Nino, which leads to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, have formed for the first time in seven years.
The study points out that Europe's efforts to adapt to global warming over the past 20 years haven't kept pace with the escalating temperatures. Dr. Joan Ballester has called for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing temperature monitoring platforms, heat prevention plans, and long-term adaptation strategies. Moreover, projections indicate that, without significant action, temperatures will continue to rise at an accelerated pace, with increasingly severe health impacts across Europe.
Mediterranean countries have the highest death rates from heatwaves, according to the study led by Dr. Ballester, a professor at the Global Health Institute in Barcelona. Researchers used data collected by the EU from 823 regions in 35 countries, including some non-members, covering a population of more than 543 million people. They estimated that between May 30 and September 4, 2022, there were 61,672 deaths related to extreme heat in Europe, and 62,862 heat-related deaths throughout the year.
The data also revealed that Italy suffered the most, with 295 out of every million people dying due to heat, followed by Greece, with 280 per million, then Spain (237 per million) and Portugal (211 per million). Regarding the absolute number of heat-related deaths in Europe, Italy topped the list with 18,010 cases, followed by Spain with 11,324 and Germany with 8,173.
Among the over 61,000 deaths in Europe last summer, the majority were women, particularly those over 80 years old. Dr. Ballester noted that elderly women were the group most severely affected by the extreme heat, as they are the most vulnerable in this age bracket.
The study also pointed out that among the younger demographic, men had a higher death rate. Those without air conditioning and those who work outdoors are also susceptible to extreme heat. Dr. Ballester added that other researchers have studied the reasons for this discrepancy in heat-related deaths, for example, young men working in outdoor construction tend to have worse health conditions.
Dr. Ballester further stated that as climate change continues, there might be an increasing number of people globally dying from extreme heat. "When temperatures fluctuate, we observe that mortality rates fluctuate as well."
The Daily Economic News reported that in recent years, numerous studies have analyzed the problem of deaths caused by extreme heat. A paper published in The Lancet Planetary Health in 2021 pointed out that each year between 2000 and 2019, more than 5 million people worldwide died from high or low temperatures. Over these two decades, the number of deaths related to high temperatures increased globally, a trend likely to worsen due to climate change.
Europe is warming faster than any other continent, currently about 1 degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial times. A United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report indicates that in recent decades, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, including marine heatwaves, have increased in Europe. This trend is expected to continue, regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions decrease.
After the extreme heatwave of 2003, several European countries launched urgent measures to combat such events. Currently, the French government has introduced 15 preventive measures against summer heatwaves. Spain has implemented measures including a ban on outdoor work during extreme heat and flexible work hours to avoid peak heat periods.
Germany has introduced a "heat prevention plan," which includes timely heat warnings and advice for the public. Local governments recommend providing air-conditioned public spaces such as supermarkets and sports centers and paying special attention to the elderly and vulnerable in community service centers.
However, Dr. Ballester believes that current efforts in Europe to prevent extreme heat are insufficient and cannot prevent widespread heat-related casualties. He adds that although there's evidence showing that heat prevention plans can mitigate the health issues brought on by environmental temperatures, their effectiveness is still limited.
Juan Declet-Barreto, a senior social scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists who was not involved in the Nature Medicine study, considers it "very timely," especially considering this year's extreme heat in Europe. He agrees with the study's methodology, as "there is a well-known relationship between high temperatures and excess mortality in the field of public health." Comparing last summer with the summer heatwave of 2003 could provide insights into what additional health and policy interventions governments need to undertake.
