After several consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service has officially declared this summer, spanning June to August, as the hottest ever recorded globally. While the Northern Hemisphere experienced its hottest summer, the Southern Hemisphere faced a warmer winter, with global sea surface temperatures reaching new highs.
Interestingly, this summer's high temperatures occurred before the full effects of the El Niño phenomenon were evident. The peak of El Niño is expected by year's end. With decreasing rainfall, Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter, is urging rice farmers to reduce cultivation and conserve water in anticipation of more severe impacts from El Niño.
Statistics released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service on September 6 show that from June to August, the global average temperature was 16.77°C, a 0.66°C increase from previous years. The last highest record was in the summer of 2019, with a global average temperature of 16.48°C.
This August was also the hottest August ever recorded, with a global average temperature of 16.82°C, 0.31°C higher than the previous record set in August 2016. This August was the second hottest month in history, trailing only this July, with temperatures already 1.5° higher than pre-industrial levels.
While the Northern Hemisphere sweltered, Australia and several South American countries, in their winter season, experienced temperatures higher than their historical averages. Concurrently, global sea surface temperatures continued to rise. From July 31 to August 31, daily global sea surface temperatures exceeded the 2016 record.
August's global sea surface temperature reached 20.98°C, the highest ever recorded, while Antarctic sea ice coverage was 12% less than the average.
Overall, this year is inching closer to becoming the hottest year on record, with the global average temperature from January to August being the second highest ever. The hottest January to August period was in 2016, a year that also experienced a strong El Niño phenomenon.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the Earth had experienced its hottest summer ever, with extreme weather events occurring everywhere, signaling the onset of a "climate collapse."
This summer, countries from North America, Europe, and Asia all experienced record-breaking temperatures, wildfires, storms, heavy rains, and droughts.
The heatwaves altered Europe's tourism patterns, with fewer tourists in the southern coastal regions and cooler northern coastal areas becoming new tourist hotspots. Wildfires in Turkey temporarily halted shipping in the Dardanelles Strait, while drought forced France to reduce nuclear power production.
However, all these extreme weather events occurred during the development phase of El Niño, whose full effects are yet to manifest. China's National Climate Center predicted on Wednesday that equatorial central and eastern Pacific sea temperatures would continue to rise, leading to a moderate-strength eastern El Niño event this fall, peaking between October and December.
The extreme weather events triggered by El Niño will have the most direct impact on agriculture.
During the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon, high temperatures and drought in Southeast Asia led to a 15 million ton drop in rice production in the region. Global rice prices surged by 16%, and the Philippines even experienced riots due to reduced rice production.
The ISEAS - Yuosf Ishak Institute has issued a warning about this year's grain production in Southeast Asia. The report indicates that rice yields typically decrease when temperatures exceed 33°C. Research in the Philippines also showed that a 1°C increase in nighttime temperatures during the dry season could correspond to a 10% decrease in rice yields.
The report predicts that due to the effects of El Niño, rice production in Southeast Asian countries will decline this winter and next spring. In the worst-case scenario, rice production in the region for 2023-2024 could drop to a 20-year low.
In July, India, the world's largest rice exporter, limited rice exports due to extreme weather affecting rice cultivation. This move by India caused international rice prices to surge. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's July rice price index showed a 2.8% month-on-month increase and a 19.7% year-on-year increase, reaching its highest level since September 2011.
India's restrictions provided an opportunity for the second and third-largest rice exporters, Thailand and Vietnam, with both countries seeing a surge in rice export volumes and prices.
Data released by Thailand's Ministry of Commerce this week showed that in the first seven months of this year, Thailand's rice exports rose to 4.6 million tons, a 13.45% increase from the same period last year. Export revenues exceeded $2.5 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase.
By the end of August, the export price of Thai rice with a 5% broken rate rose to $620 per ton, a significant increase from last year's average of $437 per ton, a surge of over 40%. The export price of Vietnamese rice with a 5% broken rate was even higher, reaching $635 per ton. Thailand expects its rice exports this year to reach 7.2 million tons, bringing in at least $4 billion in revenue.
However, the reduced rainfall caused by the El Niño phenomenon poses a threat to Thailand's future rice and grain production.
Statistics from Thailand's Office of Water Resources showed that by early August, rainfall in the central region of Thailand had decreased by 40% compared to previous years. The main reservoirs in the region held only half of their design capacity. 14% of Thailand's rice cultivation is located in the central region.
The Office of Water Resources warned that the effects of the El Niño phenomenon could last until 2025. To conserve water, the office urged rice farmers to reduce rice cultivation and switch to other crops during this dry season.
Thailand's rice planting seasons are primarily during the rainy and dry seasons. The rainy season typically starts in May and ends in late October, while the dry season starts in November and ends in late April of the following year, with the rainy season being the primary rice planting season.
Thailand's Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives predicts that due to extreme weather, Thailand's rice production this year will drop to around 25.7 million tons, a 3.27% decrease from the previous year.
However, the decline in production will not affect Thailand's domestic rice supply, so Thailand has no plans to follow India's lead in restricting rice exports. Thailand consumes about 11 million tons of rice domestically each year.
