As the European Union enters its election season, Western support for Ukraine faces challenges. Ukraine's three eastern neighbors-Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary-are grappling with mounting pressures against aiding Ukraine.
In NATO's eastern wing nation of Slovakia, forces opposing military aid to Ukraine have taken the lead. On October 1, Slovakia's election commission announced that the Direction Party, led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, won the National Assembly elections held the previous day. Since the Direction Party did not secure a majority in the parliament, it will form a coalition with other parties or alliances.
Preliminary official data revealed that the Direction Party garnered 22.95% of the votes. The liberal, pro-Western "Progressive Slovakia Party" came in second with 17.96%. The Voice Party, which split from the Direction Party, ranked third with 14.7%.
Russia X Ukraine
a thread.
Before reading - NATO is a country alliance, say like a brotherhood - when you have a problem ill be there for you. Unlike G20 or BRICS, NATO shares military in need.
And also attaching a map of Russia and Ukraine for reference pic.twitter.com/j1fFBI3yg9 — tamim¹⁴ (@tamimhmm) February 24, 2022
West's Concerns Over Losing Slovakia
Analysts predict that the new ruling coalition will likely consist of the Direction Party, the Voice Party, and the pro-Russian nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS). This alliance would hold a slim majority with 79 seats in the 150-seat parliament. On October 1, Voice Party leader Fico mentioned that coalition talks might take days or weeks, emphasizing the priority of establishing a stable coalition government and legislative agenda.
The 59-year-old populist former Prime Minister of Slovakia had promised during his campaign to end military aid to Ukraine. After his electoral victory, he reiterated his stance, expressing the party's intention to assist Ukraine's reconstruction through humanitarian means rather than military aid. The current Slovak government supports the EU's stance on aiding Ukraine, arguing that supplying ammunition to Ukraine benefits Slovakia's industry.
Fico is known for his pro-Russian views. Besides halting aid to Ukraine, he also advocates for negotiations with Russia and criticizes Western sanctions against Moscow. Many of his statements align closely with those of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. It is widely expected that the two will collaborate to challenge the EU's consensus on Ukraine.
This has naturally raised concerns among Western mainstream opinion. They worry that this relatively pro-Russian new leader will further empower the "troublemakers" within the EU.
In fact, the West has already been concerned about losing Slovakia. Milan Ninik of the German Foreign Relations Committee believes that Hungary is no longer alone, and Fico's victory represents a shocking political revival of a seasoned populist mired in corruption cases. He wrote on social media that the West's key task now is "not to lose Slovakia." They should engage constructively with Fico and manage the rifts in support for Ukraine, which is crucial.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán could hardly contain his excitement. "Guess who's back! It's always good to work with a patriot. I'm looking forward to it," he posted on social media, congratulating Fico on his victory right away.
Radoslav Štefančík, an analyst at the University of Economics in Bratislava, doesn't rule out the possibility of Fico collaborating with Orbán to play the role of "troublemaker" within the EU. However, some analysts note that Fico has been pragmatic in his previous terms, suggesting his rhetoric might cool down after successfully forming a government.
Ukraine is closely watching the election results in Slovakia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba expressed respect for the choice of the Slovak people but believes it's too early to determine how it will impact the country's stance on Ukraine. It's essential to wait until the ruling coalition is formed to draw preliminary conclusions.
Poland's Political Tug-of-War Affects Ukraine Policy
Meanwhile, two major forces in Poland are making their final push.
On October 15, Poland will hold parliamentary elections, with the ruling "Law and Justice Party" aiming for a third consecutive term. Daniel Hegedüs, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, stated that although the outlook for the Polish elections remains uncertain with various possibilities, most of them will likely be negative for the EU. The number of "illiberal governments" in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe might increase, complicating the coordination of EU foreign policy actions, which largely depends on what happens in Warsaw.
On October 1, Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk showcased his strong appeal by organizing a massive anti-government march, potentially the largest in the country since the 1980s.
Tusk warned that the ruling party might attempt to pull Poland out of the EU. He called on "patriots to overthrow the right-wing nationalist government," describing it as "the last chance to save Polish democracy and freedom." On the same day, the ruling party held a pre-election party convention in the southern city of Katowice. The Law and Justice Party chairman warned that a Tusk victory would mean Poland being influenced by foreign powers. He accused Tusk of "yielding to external forces," especially Germany and Russia, during his tenure as Prime Minister.
The march organized by Tusk, named "A March of a Million Hearts," primarily took place in the capital, Warsaw, with a parade stretching over 4 kilometers. The crowd waved Polish and EU flags, and some Polish-Americans waved American flags.
The opposition claims that up to a million people participated, but the Polish government, citing police sources, said the number was "less than 100,000." Online news channel onet.pl estimated that between 600,000 and 800,000 people attended the rally.
During its eight-year tenure, the current Polish government has had tense relations with the EU, which criticized Poland's backsliding on the rule of law and democracy. The ruling party in Poland opposes EU bureaucracy, positioning itself as a protector of Polish values and sovereignty, while accusing the opposition party led by Tusk of being a spokesperson for foreign powers like Germany and Russia.
Tusk advocates for mending ties with the EU and also supports reviving the Nord Stream gas pipeline project with Germany and Russia. From 2007 to 2014, Tusk served as Poland's Prime Minister. From 2014 to 2019, he was elected President of the European Council. After his five-year term in Brussels, Tusk returned to Polish politics.
Currently, both parties have a close chance of winning. Recent polls show the Law and Justice Party polling at around 38%, while the Civic Coalition led by Tusk (an alliance of centrist and center-left forces) is at 30%. It's expected that neither party will likely secure a majority, and the composition of the next government will depend on which front-runner can find allies.
Election pressures have made Poland, once one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters, increasingly ambivalent. Poland had criticized Germany for not being proactive enough in aiding Ukraine. However, the looming elections have put pressure on the ruling party, leading to mixed signals from the Polish government on the Ukraine issue. Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Morawiecki stated in an interview that they would "no longer transfer any weapons to Ukraine" and would focus on arming themselves. This statement was later contradicted by President Duda.
The ruling party in Poland is facing strong pressures regarding Ukraine. On October 1, the leader of the Polish farm lobbying group Agrounia expressed support for the opposition. To retain the crucial support base in rural areas, the ruling party had previously halted imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers from the impact.
The EU's overland route for Ukrainian grain exports has increasingly sparked protests from farmers in several Eastern European transit countries. The influx of cheap Ukrainian grain in local markets has hurt local farmers. In fact, the impact of low-priced Ukrainian grain is a shared concern for Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, all of which have stopped importing Ukrainian grain.
