In a promising development for the U.S. economy, the monthly inflation rate fell in June, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates later this year. The consumer price index (CPI), which tracks the cost of goods and services, decreased by 0.1% from May, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3%. This marks the lowest level of inflation in over three years, according to the Labor Department's report on Thursday.
The all-items index, which includes everything from food and energy to shelter costs, saw its annual rate fall from 3.3% in May. Excluding the more volatile food and energy sectors, the core CPI rose by a modest 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.3% year-over-year, slightly below the forecasted 0.2% monthly increase and 3.4% annual rise. This annual core rate increase is the smallest since April 2021.
A significant factor in the inflation dip was a 3.8% decrease in gasoline prices, which helped counterbalance the 0.2% increases in both food and shelter costs. Housing-related expenses, a major component of the CPI and a persistent driver of inflation, showed a slower rate of increase, signaling a positive shift. Stock market futures responded favorably to the news, with Treasury yields dropping, indicating optimism in the financial markets.
In addition to falling energy prices, used vehicle prices also saw a notable decrease of 1.5% for the month and a significant 10.1% drop from a year ago. This sector had previously been a key contributor to the inflation surge witnessed in 2021.
This inflation data presents a stark contrast to the trend observed since the pandemic's onset. For the first time since May 2020, consumer prices have registered a monthly decline, aided by reductions in gas and car prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) highlighted that this drop has helped bring the annual inflation rate down to its slowest pace since June 2023, matching the lowest annual rate since early 2021.
The better-than-expected inflation report has strengthened hopes that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, potentially as early as September, with another cut possible in December, provided inflation data continues to show improvement. Interest rates have remained at a 23-year high due to the central bank's efforts to curb inflation.
"With another good CPI print under their belt, the window is open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as September, and potentially again in December, assuming the inflation data continues to cooperate," Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Economists had predicted a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual gain, according to FactSet consensus estimates. However, the core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, rose just 0.1% from May, marking its slowest pace since August 2021. This nudged the annual rate of core inflation down to 3.3% from 3.4%, a new three-year low.
Following the release of the inflation data, U.S. stock futures climbed, pushing all three major indexes into positive territory. Dow futures increased by 80 points, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures also gained 0.3%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, which could benefit consumers, as mortgage and credit card rates are often tied to the 10-year yield.
