Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning to the West, indicating that if Ukraine is permitted to use long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, Moscow may respond with significant escalation, potentially including a nuclear weapons test. The caution comes as U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer deliberate on supplying Ukraine with U.S. ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles capable of reaching deep into Russian territory.
In his most explicit threat to date, Putin stated on Thursday that the West would be "directly fighting Russia" if it proceeds with arming Ukraine with such capabilities, fundamentally altering the nature of the conflict. "We will react in a way that will not be pretty," he warned, without detailing specific retaliatory measures.
Analysts suggest that Putin's options range from striking British military assets near Russia to conducting a nuclear test to demonstrate Moscow's resolve. Ulrich Kuehn, an arms expert at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, did not rule out a nuclear message. "This would be a dramatic escalation of the conflict," he said. "Nuclear testing would be new. I would not exclude that."
Russia has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, and resuming such tests would mark a significant shift in international security dynamics. Gerhard Mangott, a security specialist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, echoed this possibility. "They have made all the preparations needed. They could explode a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in the east of the country just to demonstrate that they mean it when they say we will eventually resort to nuclear weapons," he noted.
Meanwhile, the head of NATO's military committee, Adm. Rob Bauer, asserted that Ukraine has the legal and military right to strike deep inside Russia to gain a combat advantage. "Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself. And that right doesn't stop at the border of your own nation," Bauer said during the committee's annual meeting, attended by U.S. Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Lt. Gen. Karel Řehka, chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces, supported this stance. "We believe that the Ukrainians should decide themselves how to use [the weapons]," he stated. These comments highlight a divide among U.S. allies, as the Biden administration hesitates to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using American-made weapons.
Russia's U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, cautioned that NATO would become "a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power" if it allowed Ukraine to use longer-range weapons against Russia. "You shouldn't forget about this and think about the consequences," he told the U.N. Security Council on Friday.
Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov suggested that Moscow might declare that London has shifted from a proxy war to direct aggression if it permits Kyiv to fire Storm Shadow missiles into Russia. Possible Russian responses could include closing embassies, targeting British drones and warplanes near Russia, or even striking F-16 jets based in Romania and Poland.
Despite previous warnings that did not result in significant action, analysts believe Putin may feel compelled to respond decisively this time. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, emphasized that the president's message was "extremely clear and unambiguous."
University of Innsbruck's Mangott noted that the repeated broadcasting of Putin's warning on Russian state television creates an expectation for action. "The way Putin's warning has been shown repeatedly... created an expectation that he would need to deliver," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to press Western allies for more robust support, arguing that striking deep into Russian territory is essential for Ukraine's defense. Adm. Bauer agreed, stating, "You want to weaken the enemy that attacks you... attack the archer that is, as we see, very often operating from Russia proper into Ukraine."
U.S. officials remain cautious. Gen. CQ Brown reiterated that current U.S. policy on long-range weapons remains unchanged but acknowledged Ukraine's effectiveness with domestically produced systems. "They've proven themselves fairly effective in building out uncrewed aerial vehicles, in building out drones," Brown said.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin added that while specific weapons systems are important, "There is no silver bullet when it comes to things like this." He highlighted Ukraine's existing capability to strike inside Russia using its own assets.
As Western leaders weigh the risks and benefits of granting Ukraine the ability to strike deeper into Russian territory, the potential for significant escalation looms. Sergei Mironov, leader of a pro-Kremlin political party, declared, "The moment of truth has come for the West, whether it desires a full-scale war with Russia."
Kuehn warned of the dangers of miscalculating Putin's red lines. "Allowing Ukraine to use Western weaponry... is something that very closely encroaches on vital Russian interests," he said. "So I think those who say 'Well, nothing will happen, let's just do it,' are wrong."
