Iran has commenced the evacuation of military personnel and commanders from Syria as advancing rebel forces gain control of key territories, dealing a blow to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The withdrawal marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the 13-year Syrian conflict, long dominated by Assad's regime and its allies, including Iran and Russia.
According to The New York Times, Iranian officials and regional sources reported that members of the elite Quds Force-part of Iran's Revolutionary Guards-were among those evacuated. These forces, along with Iranian diplomatic staff and civilians, were relocated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon, with some flying directly to Tehran. The evacuations were ordered at Iranian bases and the embassy in Damascus.
The rebel offensive has already led to significant territorial losses for Assad's forces. By Friday, opposition fighters had seized Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, followed by Hama and the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor. Rebel forces also advanced to the outskirts of Homs, the nation's third-largest city, and gained control of the southern cities of Daraa and Suweida.
The rapid retreat of government troops underscores the deteriorating position of Assad's regime. Iranian analyst Mehdi Rahmati told The New York Times, "Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation, and this option is off the table."
Rahmati also noted Iran's increasing frustration with the lack of resolve among Syrian forces. Iran "cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight," he added.
Iran has been a crucial supporter of Assad since the conflict erupted in 2011, sending militias and military advisers to bolster the regime. The relationship has been mutually strategic, with Syria serving as a corridor for Iran to supply arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, as the rebels gain momentum, Tehran's ability to sustain its military presence in Syria appears to be waning.
In a separate report by Reuters, an unnamed senior Iranian official insisted that Tehran is still supplying military equipment and increasing the number of advisers in Syria. However, these efforts may be insufficient to counter the rebel advance.
Russia, another key ally of Assad, is also facing constraints. Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, told Newsweek, "The little that Russia could provide Syria-given Russian commitments in Ukraine-is unlikely to decisively turn the tide of the Syrian Opposition's advance."
The Iranian withdrawal could signal a critical juncture for Assad's regime, which now faces the possibility of being further isolated. Analysts speculate that without Iranian support, Assad may increasingly lean on Moscow. Yet, Russia's involvement remains limited due to its preoccupation with the ongoing war in Ukraine.
