OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, the second consecutive monthly increase, as the group continues unwinding its 2.2 million bpd production cut, despite falling oil prices and signs of softer demand. The decision followed a short online meeting on Saturday, which was moved up from May 5 to May 3 as internal tensions within the group intensified.
The output hike, announced amid growing global economic concerns and weakening oil prices, was framed by the group as a continuation of a healthy market trajectory. Brent crude futures dropped to $61.29 per barrel on Friday, marking levels last seen in early 2021-below the fiscal breakeven price for many OPEC+ members.
The eight core countries implementing the phased unwind-led by Saudi Arabia-are now set to increase production by a total of 960,000 bpd between April and June, unwinding 44% of the 2.2 million bpd cuts agreed in December. Each monthly increment is approximately 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations.
"Compliance again appears to be the key focus, with Kazakhstan and Iraq continuing to miss their compensation targets, alongside Russia to a lesser extent," said Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets. Bloomberg data released Thursday indicated that OPEC's actual production in April dropped by 200,000 bpd to 27.24 million, contradicting the group's stated intentions.
The accelerated pace and early meeting reflect pressure from Saudi Arabia, which has reportedly conveyed to allies that it will no longer tolerate overproduction by noncompliant members. According to market sources, Riyadh has signaled it is prepared to accept lower oil prices if that is what it takes to enforce quota discipline.
Amena Bakr of Kpler said on X that the meeting aimed to "build consensus around maintaining the sped-up increment of 411K for June." The comment reflects a shift in strategy, as Saudi Arabia appears to be leveraging production policy not just to balance supply and demand but to impose compliance.
The Brent price drop of nearly 1% Friday morning-trading around $61.56-has heightened pressure on producers, many of whom face budget shortfalls with oil below $65 per barrel. While OPEC+ has pledged to offset 4.57 million bpd of overproduction by mid-2026, patchy enforcement and growing discontent raise questions about the group's long-term cohesion.
