Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warning of possible rapid intensification over the weekend as the system tracks toward the northern Leeward Islands.
As of Thursday morning, Erin was located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 17 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph and higher gusts. The storm is expected to shift to a west-northwestward motion later Thursday, passing near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend. "The environment around Erin should remain conducive during the next day or so," the NHC said, noting warmer waters and reduced wind shear could trigger "a period of potential rapid intensification."
Forecast models on Thursday showed a slight eastward shift in Erin's trajectory, after several previous westward adjustments. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, but the NHC cautioned that locally heavy rainfall, tropical-storm-force winds, and dangerous surf could affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Swells generated by Erin are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico by the weekend, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents. The NHC said the risk of hazardous beach conditions and deadly rip currents could expand across the western Atlantic basin, including the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas, and Bermuda next week.
In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the threat from Erin prompted the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) to accelerate its territory-wide sandbag distribution program. "We strongly encourage all residents to take advantage of this opportunity to protect their homes and property," officials said in a statement. VITEMA Director Daryl Jaschen told FOX Weather his top concerns include wind-driven rain, marine conditions, and overall wind impacts. He also noted logistical challenges: "About 98 percent of our goods come from outside the territory... I have to get fuel for [power plants]. I have to get support for the airports."
Authorities are also working to inform tourists and prepare evacuation routes if needed, particularly from St. John to St. Thomas. The U.S. Coast Guard implemented Port Condition Whiskey on Wednesday for seaports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, advising pleasure craft to seek safe harbor and directing port facilities to review heavy-weather plans.
