Bitcoin's retreat to roughly $103,000 this week has rattled investors and revived debate over whether the cryptocurrency's rally is running out of steam. The drop, accompanied by declines across major tokens, follows a warning from Morgan Stanley that Bitcoin has entered its "fall season," a cyclical cooling period the bank says typically precedes weaker performance.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell nearly 1.6% to $103,559.17, while Ethereum slipped 3.1% to $3,448.26. XRP dropped 2.4% to $2.39, Solana tumbled more than 5%, and Dogecoin and BNB each lost about 2%. The moves marked another broad pullback in the digital asset market, reflecting a cautious mood among traders.
Technical analysts say the price is hovering near key support levels that could determine whether the selloff accelerates. BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said resistance at $110,800 remains "a key barrier for Bitcoin," while the 50-week simple moving average near $103,000 continues to provide support. She noted that "large-volume selling is weighing heavily on price movements," adding that more than $45 billion in Bitcoin has been offloaded by major holders since October.
Morgan Stanley strategists underscored that Bitcoin's latest performance fits into its historical four-year rhythm of three strong years followed by one weaker one. Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explained in the firm's Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast that "fall is the time for harvest. So, it is the time you want to take your gains." Galindo said the key uncertainty now is "how long this period will last and when the next 'winter' phase may begin."
The analogy, drawn from Bitcoin's cyclical behavior, suggests the market may continue to face selling pressure until the cycle resets. Still, some prominent crypto investors see the downturn as temporary. Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom, said favorable monetary conditions could offset a traditional bear market, arguing that Bitcoin's halving cycle might weaken "as interest rates shift and global liquidity increases."
Meanwhile, sentiment among retail traders has turned noticeably bearish. Stocktwits data indicated Bitcoin discussions have tilted toward pessimism, with message volumes climbing as the price slipped. Some traders described the market as "conditioned to expect a downtrend every 365 days," suggesting that retail investors may be reluctant to reenter before 2026. Others cited the absence of fresh capital inflows as evidence that the recent peak could already be behind them.
Analysts are watching several key indicators in the days ahead:
- Bitcoin's ability to reclaim resistance near $110,000.
- Whale selling activity and institutional inflows.
- Policy signals from the Federal Reserve on potential rate cuts.
