Republican leaders entered the final hours before Tennessee's special election on Tuesday bracing for the possibility of an extraordinary upset in one of the party's safest congressional districts. Despite Donald Trump winning Tennessee's 7th District by roughly 22 percentage points in 2024, internal anxiety surged as polls showed a tightening race and party strategists warned that the president's sustained unpopularity was weighing on their nominee.
The concerns became most visible when Donald Trump Jr. issued an urgent video appeal late Monday, pleading with voters to turn out for Republican contender Matt Van Epps. Ron Filipkowski of Midastouch.com described the video as Trump Jr. "melting down tonight," adding, "Junior is melting down tonight about the special election tomorrow in TN, which should be a cakewalk for Republicans. But it isn't, thanks to his dad's unpopularity."
The increasingly frantic push contrasted with the confidence Democrats projected as they deployed high-profile surrogates, including former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for a virtual rally. Their candidate, Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn, had become the focus of national party attention in a race that under normal circumstances would not draw outside investment.
For Republicans, holding the seat is crucial to sustaining the House's narrow 219-213 majority. A defeat in a district that typically gives GOP candidates around 60% of the vote would represent a major psychological blow heading into the 2026 midterms. Democrats see an opening to build on recent special-election overperformances, where they exceeded former Vice President Harris's prior vote share by an average of nine points.
Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and Trump-endorsed "MAGA Warrior," has received a steady stream of late-stage reinforcements. At a rally in Franklin, House Speaker Mike Johnson phoned Donald Trump and held his device to the microphone so the crowd could hear the president declare, "The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they're watching your district," urging them to "make it a sweeping victory" that would prove "that the Republican Party is stronger than it's ever been."
On Truth Social, Trump followed with an extended all-caps mobilization message. "I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District to please GET OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW for a phenomenal Candidate, Matt Van Epps, on Election Day, Tuesday, December 2nd"! He added: "You can win this Election for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL BE A GREAT CONGRESSMAN and, unlike his Opponent, he cherishes Christianity and Country Music-She has openly stated that she hates them both"! He closed with: "Election Day is TOMORROW, December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE, VOTE, VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS-HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN"!
Behn, a progressive organizer from Nashville who calls herself a "pissed-off social worker," has drawn major financial backing. The House Majority PAC committed $1 million to the race, while her fundraising total reached roughly $1 million by mid-November. Van Epps reported an additional $590,000 raised since the primary. Supporters have framed Behn as "our very own AOC of TN," a comparison Republicans have used in attack messaging but one Behn says reflects the "breadth of her backing."
National Democrats-including Kamala Harris and party chair Ken Martin-have made appearances to bolster enthusiasm. The district, redrawn in 2022 to dilute Nashville's influence, still includes a significant urban electorate, with about one in five registered voters residing in the city.
